tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25163158113506136462024-03-19T10:45:13.429+01:00Strategy of Footballtompvhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07038797867793544042noreply@blogger.comBlogger32125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2516315811350613646.post-32185356215639678212017-05-02T11:21:00.000+02:002017-10-05T08:11:15.489+02:00ABBA Instead of ABAB? What’s the Fuss?<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">At this
year’s annual International Football Association Board (IFAB) meeting, the body in
charge of the Laws of the Game decided to start experimenting with an alternative sequence for taking penalties during
a shootout. Instead of having both teams take turns (i.e. ABABABABAB), as they have always done in
football, a sequence akin to the one of serving in a tiebreak
in tennis (i.e. ABBAABBAAB) will be tried out. Could this have any impact on who is to win a shootout, really? The answer is an unequivocal
‘yes’. And science helps us understand why.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">In 2010,
two Basque economists, Ignacio Palacios-Huerta and José Apesteguía, showed that
in actual penalty shootouts in football, the team shooting first ends up
winning in approx. 60% of cases; the team going second only in about 40%.
This is quite a difference with both teams winning half, which is what
would have been both expected and desirable. These findings imply that the toss deciding which team could go first imparts an enormous
competitive advantage. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The
mechanism behind this advantage is the so-called “lagging-behind effect”. The
lagging-behind effect represents the simple fact that it is more difficult to
convert a given penalty if one's team is behind in the score at the point of taking
the kick than when not behind, due to the enhanced pressure such a “near-to-losing” situation creates as one
“has to score” to keep one's team in the game. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><br /></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiw5bkqJg3aOXS1xwTQ5OAMPePQ6noFn6K5mFa_2MPcBxvKPYzR8uQdc_tLFKUwf4gZnRHYkaNEbe75xhHpnd32jL1ZsTGbf0e-j1Cs78UvZZ-xQ_SkVoOe0GIRQF3XhONSVWBxtkRvd9iQ/s1600/Baggio.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="257" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiw5bkqJg3aOXS1xwTQ5OAMPePQ6noFn6K5mFa_2MPcBxvKPYzR8uQdc_tLFKUwf4gZnRHYkaNEbe75xhHpnd32jL1ZsTGbf0e-j1Cs78UvZZ-xQ_SkVoOe0GIRQF3XhONSVWBxtkRvd9iQ/s400/Baggio.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: diariosdefutbol.com</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">It is easy
to see why such a lagging-behind effect, under the current sequence,
results in an advantage for the team going first, simply by considering both
teams' first kick. What is the probability that team A is lagging behind at the time of their first kick? Naturally, this is zero as all’s square at that point.
Now it is up to team B to take their first kick. Their chance of lagging-behind at
this point? With penalties being converted at a rate of approx. 75%, there’s
about a 75% chance team A will just have scored and thus a 75% chance
that team B are lagging behind when taking their own first kick. So a 0% vs. a 75%
chance of lagging behind on the very same kick. Under the current
ABAB-sequence, in which every time team A get to act and team B to react, this
pattern will be preserved and the resulting lagging-behind effect knocked on
till the end.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">In case of applying an ABBA-sequence, as in a tennis tiebreak, instead, the advantage of having the
opportunity to force the lagging-behind effect upon the opponent rather shifts from one team to the
other: it, again, starts with team A, but then moves to team B as they get to go twice; then to team A that get to go twice, etc. The whole idea being that the influence of
whoever may win the coin toss and thus be able to go first will have only minimal
impact on who will win.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<!--StartFragment-->
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12.0pt;">In addition to the abovementioned empirical
research uncovering the lagging-behind effect, together with Profs. Brian McCann and
Govert Vroom, we were able to prove, through theoretical (mathematical) research, <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1527002516672060" target="_blank">soon to appear in the <i>Journal of Sports Economics</i></a>, that, in case of a lagging-behind effect, the
ABBA-sequence substantially reduces the advantage of winning the toss
relative to the current sequence. However, we also prove that there is yet
another “natural” sequence, known as “Prouhet-Thue-Morse”, which reduces this
advantage even more than the ABBA-sequence does. Perhaps something to add to
next year’s IFAB meeting’s agenda </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "wingdings"; font-size: 12.0pt;">J</span><!--EndFragment-->
tompvhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07038797867793544042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2516315811350613646.post-11434907607796784492017-04-01T14:50:00.000+02:002017-10-06T11:51:32.598+02:00Why We Should All Hope FIFA’s 2026 World Cup Slot Allocation Will Be Rejected, for the Good of the Game<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">In 2026,
for the first time, the FIFA World Cup will feature 48 contestants; a 50% increase from the current format of 32 participating nations.
On the one hand, this is good news as – as the rationale for the expansion goes
– now 50% more peoples will be able to join the party. On the other hand, there can be obvious concern about maintaining the level of quality delivered on the
pitch – after all, the World Cup is not just <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">any</i> party: it’s a football tournament. The severity of the latter
risk is naturally linked with the competitiveness of the nations additionally to qualify for the 2026 and subsequent world cups. This, in turn, depends a great deal on how the slots are divided among confederations.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Before
going into the newly proposed slot allocation, which will be voted on in May, I will present two alternatives, mainly
for the purpose of benchmarking: a "pareto-optimal" one and one based on the
current FIFA World Ranking. Pareto-optimality is an economic concept indicating a
state in which it is impossible to reallocate resources in a way that will benefit at least one agent without leaving any agent worse off. This corresponds to each
confederation’s number of slots growing proportionately with the growth of the pie, i.e. by 50%, so that proportions represented by each remain unchanged. The result is as follows:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNHVB_EOMyWszs3rqis001g72GKnOmpTrz0LkMMBdaQCz41Oh_HOa1SJUgPl9mi5NqbzYjY-6piCE2hDlg8suCWZlYa0RU-xdSVZEtoBdvLXREeaSYqDOWpTFMzCyUK-TrrACIS4IvEvaf/s1600/Blogpost+WC26+1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="243" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNHVB_EOMyWszs3rqis001g72GKnOmpTrz0LkMMBdaQCz41Oh_HOa1SJUgPl9mi5NqbzYjY-6piCE2hDlg8suCWZlYa0RU-xdSVZEtoBdvLXREeaSYqDOWpTFMzCyUK-TrrACIS4IvEvaf/s640/Blogpost+WC26+1.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><!--StartFragment-->
<br />
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: left; text-indent: 0in; unicode-bidi: embed; word-break: normal;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline;">*The
host nation currently completes the 32; as of 2026, the host nation will count
towards the total of allocated slots per confederation</span></div>
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: left; text-indent: 0in; unicode-bidi: embed; word-break: normal;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 12pt;">** UEFA-affiliate</span><span style="font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline;">d associations additionally include
Turkey, Israel and Russia</span></div>
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: left; text-indent: 0in; unicode-bidi: embed; word-break: normal;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline;">***
Australia is currently affiliated to AFC, not OFC</span></div>
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</tbody></table>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;">Alternatively,
we can consider a slot allocation based on the FIFA world ranking. While the FIFA world ranking is no
perfect indicator of national teams’ strength, it can be argued that the
top-48 of the ranking roughly corresponds to the 48 strongest footballing
nations of the moment. According to FIFA's world ranking, as of 01/04/17, the following slot allocation could be taken into account:</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgG9b2SdkEteouZ-f8Ne1EKd_kC-nLVO-FTJZSm9M1UPi0kecCbjbPojqmpQwi0S2qucOUHfjsMJEaPHELTydHg_7J68yW6urUKh5rceh2ZVuxSBoqyFUK4IYkrrwSPdB-_D8rFDqTJK-_R/s1600/Blogpost+WC26+2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="219" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgG9b2SdkEteouZ-f8Ne1EKd_kC-nLVO-FTJZSm9M1UPi0kecCbjbPojqmpQwi0S2qucOUHfjsMJEaPHELTydHg_7J68yW6urUKh5rceh2ZVuxSBoqyFUK4IYkrrwSPdB-_D8rFDqTJK-_R/s640/Blogpost+WC26+2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;">Now let us turn to the actual <a href="https://www.fifa.com/about-fifa/news/y=2017/m=3/news=bureau-of-the-council-recommends-slot-allocation-for-the-2026-fifa-wor-2878254.html" target="_blank">officially proposed 2026 World Cup slot allocation</a>:</span></div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvdcDeFHvb_3w-FpHr1K9p8kt2Wbfsi67iTBCmv-cRFj6jf0PGHwrYHQG9jWzLHIojip7kDUmk-aTWJ-NKN0y_KJ3YG5pvQ83qyd-o88aCpCtSHJzpafxQytuSMNelwom1WBbG8fB8y-sp/s1600/Blogpost+WC26+3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="222" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvdcDeFHvb_3w-FpHr1K9p8kt2Wbfsi67iTBCmv-cRFj6jf0PGHwrYHQG9jWzLHIojip7kDUmk-aTWJ-NKN0y_KJ3YG5pvQ83qyd-o88aCpCtSHJzpafxQytuSMNelwom1WBbG8fB8y-sp/s640/Blogpost+WC26+3.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><!--StartFragment-->
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<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: left; unicode-bidi: embed; word-break: normal;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 12pt;">*
Two slots will be subject to a play-off tournament of six nations, including
one</span><span style="font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 12pt;">delegate</span><span style="font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline;"> from each confederation but UEFA and an additional one from the confederation of the host
country. Two of the six participants in the play-off will be seeded, based on
their FIFA world ranking. Due to all of its members’ relatively very low ranking, no OFC member could be seeded by any likelihood.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;">Oddity nr.
1: The cleanest comparison relating the quality of their football and their
differential treatment according to the newly proposed slot allocation is the one between AFC and CONMEBOL. Both the Asian and the South-American confederation currently have 4.5 spots each. Over the last 5 editions of the
World Cup, i.e. all those featuring 32 contenders, 7 different nations, both of AFC and of CONMEBOL, were able to
qualify at least once for the tournament. Interestingly, of those 7 AFC
nations, only 3 (so 43%) were able to ever make it through to the Round of 16,
as compared to all 7 (so 100%) of the CONMEBOL nations. Moreover, at the previous World Cup, where CONMEBOL had 7 representatives due to Brazil hosting the event, no less than 5 of them made it through to the Round of 16. Not a single member of AFC made it that far. This evidences that while AFC and CONMEBOL have thus far been allotted an exact same number of
slots, CONMEBOL has been able to delegate consistently more competitive teams
than AFC. Yet, under the new proposal, CONMEBOL’s number of slots
allocated is due to increase to only 6.44 as compared to 8.44 for AFC.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Oddity nr.
2: To assess the breadth of competitive teams within each confederation, one may consider how many of their different nations, respectively, were able to qualify for previous World Cups. All confederations but one delegated a
number of different countries to the previous 5 World Cups that is at least as large as their minimum allocation for
the 2026 World Cup according to the new proposal. The exception being AFC, with 8.44 slots, yet only 7
different nations that managed to qualify so far. This means that even
in case all of its members who participated in any of the previous 5 World Cups, viz. Iran, Japan, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, China, Australia and North Korea, are to qualify for the 2026 tournament, then, still, AFC will be able to
delegate at least one and possibly two additional nations. As a gentle
reminder, in their respective participations in 2002 and 2010, neither China nor
North Korea were able to salvage any points from their group. Whereas China also
failed to score a single goal, at least North Korea did find their way to the
net, once. The cumulative goal average of both nations’ combined 6 games
stood at –20. This implies having lost their games, on average, by more than 3 goals difference.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Oddity nr. 3: As evidenced by the changes in the proportions each confederation is able to
delegate, the newly proposed allocation implies a loss for UEFA of no less than 9 percentage points (its stake dropping from 42% to 33%), to the relative benefit mostly of the African and Asian confederations. In case of the former, the increase seems granted, based on the FIFA world ranking: CAF is now certain to have at least 9 delegates, with exactly 9 African nations raking within the top-48 of the FIFA world ranking. In case of AFC, however, no more than 2 countries currently rank within the top-48 of that ranking. </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Concretely, the transfer of slots from UEFA to AFC would imply that the <i>strongest</i> possible countries to potentially make it to the tournament on the side of AFC, according to the FIFA world ranking, will include Uzbekistan (63), UAE (68) and Qatar (84) and that at the very least 10 UEFA countries within the top-48 of FIFA's world ranking will be left out. Furthermore, considering the World Cup's 5 most recent editions, no less than 20 different UEFA delegates (exactly its number of "pareto-optimal" slots) were able, not just to qualify for the tournament – </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">which otherwise could also have
been due to too many European slots – but to actually make it through to the
last 16 – indicating their genuine ability to compete.</span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">In sum: in the event the proposed slot allocation becomes accepted, in the short term, i.e. at the 2026 World Cup, we can expect more than a few countries
to be present that will not, by any standard, have their place among the world’s best 48
footballing nations. In the longer term, we would be likely to witness a
number of non-Asian national associations follow Australia’s example by requesting to join AFC, incentivised by the disproportionate number of slots
awarded to this confederation relative to the level of competitiveness of its competing members. To conclude with Erasmus' wisdom, prevention is better than cure.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
tompvhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07038797867793544042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2516315811350613646.post-52254957140954686102016-11-08T17:27:00.000+01:002016-11-10T22:05:10.710+01:00Best 11 vs. 11 "Best Bang for Your Buck"<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">With the
initial study rounds being a matter of the past, the 2016-2017 season is
finally well underway. An appropriate time to assess whose star has been
shining. In today's post, I will assemble and compare two line-ups, across all
leagues: the best performing one and the one that has so far yielded the best
value for money. </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">As performance measure, I will employ the industry standard, i.e. the <i>InStat
Index</i>, an overall quality score indicating a player's recent form. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;">The InStat
Index is based on a detailed breakdown of a player's recent performances along
about a dozen relevant performance dimensions, according to the position the player occupies on the field, e.g. </span><i style="font-size: 12pt;">finishing</i><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> for a forward and <i>key passing</i> for a central midfielder</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">. As a measure of a player's value, I use the </span><i style="font-size: 12pt;">market value</i><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> as provided by </span><i style="font-size: 12pt;">transfermarkt.com</i><span style="font-size: 12pt;">. Both InStat Index
scores and market values used are those as of November 8, 2016.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">To
determine the best-in-form line-up, I checked for each position on
the field which of all players on that position has the highest InStat Index score.
The resulting team is as follows:</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><o:p> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKEonEEHSpugcuoLpuvie1Z9zSMQvjXzV-0nBCNebcFb0icWohofLs3TwkEJQU3I-JA_KThQlNM1uHlEHyNELw0vn_MXRMxm1_eMnpTMI2YVkH_mqe90SsiE1THSPvkbrDlVaQ4fyIIwHK/s1600/Slide1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKEonEEHSpugcuoLpuvie1Z9zSMQvjXzV-0nBCNebcFb0icWohofLs3TwkEJQU3I-JA_KThQlNM1uHlEHyNELw0vn_MXRMxm1_eMnpTMI2YVkH_mqe90SsiE1THSPvkbrDlVaQ4fyIIwHK/s400/Slide1.jpg" width="300" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 1: Best 11, based on InStat Index per position<br />
(Top, italicized, number in players' squares is their InStat<br />
Index score; bottom number their market value, in €m)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Observation
1: Although players from all professional leagues across the world are being
taken into consideration, the best starting eleven come from as few as three
national leagues: La Liga, the Premier League and Ligue 1. Moreover, the Spanish
league is host to no less than 9 of the 11. Additionally, apart from PSG's Brazilian
skipper Thiago Silva, the only representative of a league other than the
Spanish one is David Silva, indeed a 2010 World Cup winner with Spain. In
total, there are five Spanish players in the team and three Brazilians.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Observation
2: Spanish champions FC Barcelona provide more than half of the best team: the
attacking line is entirely <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Barça'</i>s
<i>MSN</i>, with Pep Guardiola's incarnation on the field, Sergio Busquets, forming a
link between the attack and a defense featuring both the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">blaugranas</i> Umtiti and Sergi Roberto.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Observation
3: The two players in the team who are no absolute stars (yet) are Sevilla FC's
goalkeeper Sergio Rico and Las Palmas' central midfielder Jonathan Viera. With
solid performances both in La Liga
and the Champions League, Rico, a 23-year-old local boy from Sevilla, who made his
debut for Spain earlier this year, is keeping PSG arrival, Italian
international Sirigu behind him on the bench. Those readers for whom virtuoso Jonathan
Viera, by far the player with the lowest market value to make it into the
squad, may or may not ring a bell, I gladly point to the <a href="http://www.strategyoffootball.com/2016/08/offensive-contribution-in-la-liga-usual.html" target="_blank">previous post</a> in this
blog.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Observation
4: Apart from who made it to the team, it is also interesting to consider some who
did <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">not</i>. In spite of them being the players
with the third and fourth highest InStat Index score overall, respectively, neither
Real Madrid's Gareth Bale nor Cristiano Ronaldo feature in the 11 best. Their
misfortune is that they happen to be playing in the same position as the
numbers one and two in terms of InStat Index, Messi and Neymar, respectively. Marcelo is thus the only <i>merengue</i> to make it to the best 11.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">As, for most clubs and people, money is a limited resource, it is at least as worthwhile to
find out which team yields the best value for money. In terms of our analysis,
which players represent the most InStat Index points per euro? Simply dividing
a player's InStat Index score by his market value, however, would imply that, say, a
player with half Messi's InStat Index score and costing less than half of Messi would
be "better value for money". To correct for this, I apply a natural-logarithmic
transformation to the players' market value. Thus, the measure I consider here is InStat Index score divided by ln(market value).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">For a
player to be withheld, in addition to having the best above measure in his
position, he should be part of the top 10 in his position according to InStat
Index and he must have featured in at least half of his team's domestic league
games this season to date. The resulting "best bang for your buck" 11 are as
follows:</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"></span></div>
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEik0oTDC8qvThlB3eUzhF3UWQ0Ew_Pv5DxgvWtGltm-YfdERq56p83GHKTyBaOeQ16nCtujVWzVB9mug0VNfBqbHdVkHBwC50VNQwmAQPCV4FOFGv7yuI2pW3_mGYpJwkNpmzF9kzWupxdz/s1600/Slide1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEik0oTDC8qvThlB3eUzhF3UWQ0Ew_Pv5DxgvWtGltm-YfdERq56p83GHKTyBaOeQ16nCtujVWzVB9mug0VNfBqbHdVkHBwC50VNQwmAQPCV4FOFGv7yuI2pW3_mGYpJwkNpmzF9kzWupxdz/s400/Slide1.jpg" width="300" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 2: "Best bang for your buck" 11,<br />
based on InStat Index and market values<br />
(Top, italicized, number in players' squares is their InStat<br />
Index score; bottom number their market value, in €m)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;">Observation
5: The dominance of La Liga is similar in case of the "best bang for your buck" 11: 8 players play their football in the Spanish league; one of the "foreigners" in the team, Bayern Munich's Xabi Alonso, is actually a World Cup
winner for Spain. Together with Schalke 04's Brazilian centre back Naldo,
Alonso is one of two Bundesliga representatives coming into the team. With six players, more than
half of the team are Spanish; again there are three Brazilians.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Observation
6: With a market value of just one tenth even of Sergio Rico's and with an
InStat Index score that is just marginally lower than his Sevilla FC counterpart,
Espanyol's on-loan goalkeeper Diego López, the man in whose favor Mourinho
famously dropped <i>San </i>Iker Casillas to the bench when at Real Madrid, comes into the team.
Sevilla FC does manage to keep a player in the squad, though, as Sergio Escudero
replaces Marcelo on left back.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Observation
7: Expensive <i>Barça</i> options on right back and centre back, Sergi Roberto
and Umtiti, are being replaced by the very lowly valued Míchel and David
García, both from Las Palmas. As, naturally, Jonathan Viera retains his spot in
the team, Las Palmas thus become the only club with as many as three players in
the "best bang for your buck" 11! Another player coming in from one of La Liga's smaller teams is Villarreal's promising midfielder Manu
Trigueros.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Observation
8: Both Messi and Neymar remain in the team, in
spite of their astronomical market value. The rationale is simple:
both are so much better (as indicated by the InStat Index differential) than
the other players in their position that they still provide the best value for
money – in this case a lot of value for a lot of money. As mentioned above,
Bale and Cristiano Ronaldo are the ones who come closest to the performance of Messi
and Neymar, respectively, but their market value is comparable to their <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">blaugrana</i> counterparts.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Observation
9: A big part of bringing down the cost (i.e. market value) of the team without
sacrificing performance much has been achieved by bringing aging stars in,
whose market value is at a low, but whose performance is still up to standard.
Whereas only two players in the best 11 team are over thirty, with Thiago Silva
(32) being the oldest, in the "best bang for your buck" 11, five players are
aged 34 or 35. The average age of both teams differs by 3 years.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Observation
10: The best 11, corresponding to a total market value of €520m, managed an
accumulated InStat Index score of 3,685. This compares to 3,567 for the "best bang for your buck" 11, valued at €259m. In other words,
with only half the budget – and still being able to
count with both Messi and Neymar – the "best bang for your buck" 11 represent only a
3% loss in InStat Index score compared to the best possible 11. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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However, <i>adding</i> players' individual performances may not provide the right basis for comparison. If football is a "weakest link" rather than a "strongest link" game, as advocated by some of its greatest managerial innovators, such as Lobanovskyi and Sacchi, <i>multiplying</i> individual performances may be the more <span style="font-size: 12pt;">accurate way to go (see Anderson and Sally's </span><i style="font-size: 12pt;">The Numbers Game</i><span style="font-size: 12pt;">). This would paint quite a different picture as the product of the individual InStat Index scores of the "best bang for your buck" 11 reaches only 69% of the best 11's – hence a 31% rather than just a 3% loss. So one's philosophy of the game will matter a great deal, also when talking "hard" numbers.</span></div>
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<!--EndFragment--><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">In this
post, we look forward to the new season of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">La
Liga</i> by looking back to the previous one. More specifically, we’ll zoom in
on the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">offensive contribution</i> of
those forwards who put in stellar performances on this front. A player’s
offensive contribution is typically determined "quick and dirty" by considering goals and
assists, often by simply adding the two. Naturally, there are much more
sophisticated – and accurate – ways to gauge the offensive contribution a
player represents to his team. One such method that I will
employ here has been proposed by Thomas Severini, Professor of
statistics at Northwestern University, and concerns a regression model with
multiple predictor variables.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The
intuition and rationale behind the statistical model are as follows: For all
teams in the Primera División, over the last seasons, we know how many goals
they scored and a bunch of other statistics, including how many shots on goal,
how many attempts at goal from outside the box, from inside the box, how many
dribbles, passes, etc. they executed. What we are interested in to find out, is what are the
variables that actually relate (most) to the number of goals scored by a given
team. To this extent, in our model, we consider each team’s performance over
the last five seasons, leading to 100 (i.e. 5 times 20 teams) observations. The
statistical model allows for filtering out those variables that yield important
additional information about the dependent variable (here: goals scored).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">A concise
model that allows us to explain no less than 85 percent (i.e. the R<sup>2</sup>)
of the goals scored in the past five seasons of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">La Liga</i> turns out to be the following:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">– 13.7 –
0.10112*shots_outside_of_box + 0.41682*shots_on_target + 0.0132*successful_passes<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Most
important when interpreting this model – rather than the actual number, which
is hard to interpret – are the variables included and their respective signs:
<i>Shots on target</i> has a positive sign, implying that more shots on target tend to coincide with more goals. The sign of the variable <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">shots
outside of box </i>is negative as it negatively adjusts the impact of shots on
target attempted <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">from outside the box</i> in terms
of their success probability. Successful passes turn out to constitute another
important aspect of the offensive contribution, whereas, for example,
successful dribbles, do not. Also noteworthy is the relative difference between the respective coefficients of variable <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">shots on target </i>and of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">successful passes</i>: A shot
on target will have an impact on the offensive contribution over thirtyfold (i.e. 0.41682/0.0132) the one of a successful pass. In case I would have data on the area of the
pitch where the passes took place (e.g. final third), the model could be made
even more accurate and I could also include non-forwards.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Following
Severini's <i>Analytic Methods in Sports</i> (2015), to apply to above team-level model at the level of the individual player, we merely need to divide the intercept by 10 (because of the
ten field players). Thus, for an individual player,<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Offensive
Contribution = – 1.37 – 0.10112*shots_outside_of_box + 0.41682*shots_on_target
+ 0.0132*successful_passes<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The top 10
of offensive contributors for the 2015-2016 <i>La Liga</i> season is as follows:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><br /></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhc8F7XAPz2Sljc7B2VWvz80hbO0_GQGzrYN-f1_dbJ_69EQlBxPba77fkS15WM0xZQwvw5aerigPzEotYcN9Jp6gyaFQgH47BStBwAT8llu_uHaduBZ-O40OR-HFUJmJa-YYDEo9luhB2N/s1600/Fig1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhc8F7XAPz2Sljc7B2VWvz80hbO0_GQGzrYN-f1_dbJ_69EQlBxPba77fkS15WM0xZQwvw5aerigPzEotYcN9Jp6gyaFQgH47BStBwAT8llu_uHaduBZ-O40OR-HFUJmJa-YYDEo9luhB2N/s400/Fig1.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 1: Top 10 offensive contributors, <i>La Liga</i> 2015-2016</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Naturally,
some players received more playing time than others, e.g. due to injury. For
comparative purposes, therefore, it is also helpful to consider offensive
contribution assuming all players would have played all matches – at the level
of their offensive contribution when they were actually fielded:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9Md21Z5RiF2-1ArrZUTfxlmW6q3NpWlJBebtu2wcZyZuVUsOgAkfv5IPtJMNRge5xVPZkI0_LImFGuElc9OZJAmHzlJ_hnsrKUAQyXY0exXNL_h9SrM6DFqxzxFB9Evb_5dDW-LOP_BYj/s1600/Fig2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9Md21Z5RiF2-1ArrZUTfxlmW6q3NpWlJBebtu2wcZyZuVUsOgAkfv5IPtJMNRge5xVPZkI0_LImFGuElc9OZJAmHzlJ_hnsrKUAQyXY0exXNL_h9SrM6DFqxzxFB9Evb_5dDW-LOP_BYj/s400/Fig2.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 2: Top 10 offensive contributors, <i>La Liga </i>2015-2016, <br />
assuming all players would have played all of their team's games</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Key
observations:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">1.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The
number 1 in terms of offensive contribution is Lionel Messi. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">2.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Although
Cristiano Ronaldo came closest to Messi in terms of offensive contribution, Neymar would have jumped
Cristiano, had they both had the same playing time.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">3.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">All
members of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">MSN </i>as well as of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">BBC</i> are included in the top ten,
assuming all players played the same number of games.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">4.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">MSN</span></i><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">’s combined offensive contribution is larger
than <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">BBC</i>’s.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">5.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">There
is one “ugly duckling” in the top 7 (8), otherwise made up entirely of “usual suspect” stars: Jonathan Viera of Las Palmas. The 26-year-old Canary
Islander tends to remain under the radar of more traditional measures of offensive
contribution.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
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</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The
top 10 is completed by club topscorers who had an exceptionally prolific season: Depor’s
Lucas Pérez, Betis’ Rubén Castro, Bilbao’s Aduriz and Real Sociedad’s Agirretxe
– who missed over half the season due to injury.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">7.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Relative differences are quite substantial, e.g. Messi's offensive contribution is almost double the rankings' number 10.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">While it is
difficult to perform even better in the season following an exceptionally good one – among others, due to a principle known in statistics as
“regression to the mean” – I particularly look forward to finding out whether Las
Palmas’ Viera can really make a name for himself this season and whether Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo can remain at the very top, or whether
youngster Neymar will make a move towards absolute supremacy.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Note that by means of our regression model, we are measuring correlations, not
causation. This concretely means that, over the past five seasons, the
selected variables were accurate predictors of offensive contribution in <i>La Liga</i>. However,
it does not imply that a player’s future offensive contribution will move
accordingly. Especially if players were to “act upon” the above model, e.g. by
dribbling less and shooting or passing more instead, the included predictor
variables may (or may not) lose part of their positive correlation with the
dependent variable.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12pt;">Let the new season commence! </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "wingdings"; font-size: 12pt;">J</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "wingdings"; font-size: 12.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/sThVvOTP8v0/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/sThVvOTP8v0?feature=player_embedded" width="320"></iframe></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "wingdings"; font-size: 12.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
tompvhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07038797867793544042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2516315811350613646.post-86674611555268199722016-05-24T18:00:00.000+02:002016-09-13T08:33:18.303+02:00How Kompany’s Absence Could Prove a Blessing for Belgium’s EURO Title Hopes<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">In this short
post, I will explain how the injury of Belgium’s captain Vincent Kompany could
potentially boost Belgium’s hopes of EURO 2016 victory – and why it probably
won’t.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The key to
understanding why the absence of a great player in this case may actually turn out to have a beneficial
effect on team performance relates to automatisms. Concretely, Kompany plays in the central defense
and is sure to play there with Belgium when fit. This necessarily means that the duo
Vertonghen-Alderweireld will be broken up and at least one of them will be
played on the sides, which is exactly what happened at the 2014 World Cup – when also Van Buyten was a certitude for coach Wilmots in the central defense.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Today, it makes much less sense to consider Belgium's defenders individually than at the time of the previous World Cup, though, for the
following straightforward reason: Vertonghen and Alderweireld have been playing
side by side all season, as a central defensive duo.
Moreover, this was in the Premier League, the world’s most competitive domestic
league, as well as in the Europa League. And, above all, no team in the Premier
League conceded fewer goals this season than did Tottenham Hotspur. The
automatisms of a central defensive duo that played at this rate of success in a
direct combination for over 30 games at the highest level can be considered a
godsend for any national team. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">When Spain
won the 2010 World Cup, coach del Bosque had three excellent central defenders
at his disposal: Puyol, Ramos and Piqué. Two of them, he would field in the centre
of the defense; one of them, he would move to the right-back position. While both Ramos and Puyol could fit the right-back position, naturally, del Bosque always elected
to field Ramos on the right, preserving the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Barça </i>tandem in the heart of the defense. Spain’s 2010 world cup victory would go down as
a prototypical example of one that followed from exploiting automatisms generated at the club level,
mainly at <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Barça</i>. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><br /></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgpp1HjJ0epZoyBhJnu8SlpSPhf0VMxwg-QcS991Hn1PPGECACMXlK78QTl_NhtPFtHvZq8dn5dZhvB3A3CAPSTzy92gCB7oqY2AHKMbFtLhfFLh1vPlHf4TIkNp3peznxyN0T5p7huYLU/s1600/Carles-Puyol-005.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="192" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgpp1HjJ0epZoyBhJnu8SlpSPhf0VMxwg-QcS991Hn1PPGECACMXlK78QTl_NhtPFtHvZq8dn5dZhvB3A3CAPSTzy92gCB7oqY2AHKMbFtLhfFLh1vPlHf4TIkNp3peznxyN0T5p7huYLU/s320/Carles-Puyol-005.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: theguardian.com</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Skeptics
may question the level of automatisms between Vertonghen and Alderweireld
relative to the one of, say, Piqué and Puyol, given that the two Belgians have
only been together at Tottenham since the beginning of the season.
It is important to realize, though, that Alderweireld and Vertonghen coincided
frequently during their careers and were formed in the same football academy:
from 2004 till 2006, both were being formed at the youth of Ajax Amsterdam, after having
joined from the same club in Belgium, Germinal Beerschot. From 2008 till 2012,
Vertonghen and Alderweireld made up the defensive block at Ajax’ senior squad. (Thomas
Vermaelen followed a similar trajectory, but left Ajax already in 2009.)
Alderweireld and Vertonghen share as solid a common basis as you will find
in contemporary football. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><br /></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLRhQcuavaTb_vGWbHFn-E3LdsRD9NRGnD04N2iFmF9coq-OPvFLF0Q_qhSBMRq5M5naUBMhyN_o2fRPwdt_-cgIxfQbRX1RtFsGvuihZaVGL5ZebMLxbMhyphenhyphenYRV_odjWtX6RsvCNPAfuYv/s1600/Vert+-+Ald.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLRhQcuavaTb_vGWbHFn-E3LdsRD9NRGnD04N2iFmF9coq-OPvFLF0Q_qhSBMRq5M5naUBMhyN_o2fRPwdt_-cgIxfQbRX1RtFsGvuihZaVGL5ZebMLxbMhyphenhyphenYRV_odjWtX6RsvCNPAfuYv/s320/Vert+-+Ald.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: scoopnest.com</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">There are
yet two more compelling reasons to combine Alderweireld and Vertonghen at the centre of Belgium's defense. First is that whereas the former is right-footed, the latter is
left-footed, underlining their complementarity. Second is that another
Belgian who had an individually outstanding season at Tottenham, Mousa
Dembélé, there plays one line above the defensive duo, opening up the
possibility to leverage automatisms relating not just to the duo, but to the triangle as well.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Within the
realm of economic rationality, having more available options can only lead to
better or similar outcomes, but not worse. Economic rationality, however, is not the regime of a football team
and certainly not the one of the Belgian national team. Leaving the influential
captain out of the team or not playing him in his favored position could have had serious repercussions. It
is thus only through Kompany’s absence that the way was freed for the
successful <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Spurs</i> duo to be united in
the heart of the Belgium defense. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
Especially with other contenders for the central defensive roles Vermaelen and Lombaerts mainly having been used as substitutes at their clubs this season and youngster Engels having had to forfeit the Euros because of injury, building on the successful central Tottenham duo would appear to be a no-brainer. Yet, I suspect coach Wilmots to come up with some alternative that will still require
breaking up one of the most effective defensive duos present at the Euros.</div>
tompvhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07038797867793544042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2516315811350613646.post-88305973131477128942016-03-29T18:21:00.000+02:002016-04-07T21:06:46.613+02:00BBC vs MSN: But This Year’s Clearly Different, Right?<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">In last
January’s post, I subjected the goal-scoring performances of <i>Barça</i>’s trident and Real Madrid’s BBC to a comparative analysis. I showed that even though Messi,
Neymar and Suárez overall turned out to be more efficient than Cristiano,
Benzema and Bale, the constituent members of BBC do actually turn out to make
each other better (synergistic), whereas <i>Barça</i>’s trident members rather seem to
score more often when some of their strike partners are absent (cannibalistic).
Neymar emerged as the most pivotal member of <i>Barça</i>’s trident. This analysis
encompassed data from the start of both tridents being united at their
respective clubs. Now that the 2015-2016 season is nearing a conclusion, it
will also be important to investigate what the relations are like for the current season. Perhaps
<i>Barça</i>’s trident is already combining much better than before? Let’s revisit the
results for the current season only, including both <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">La Liga</i> and Champions League, to date.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">We may
recall that for the aggregated data, there was only one member of the two trios
who was actually more productive when part of his threesome than when not: Cristiano Ronaldo. When looking at the current season, it turns out that <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">all </i>of BBC’s strike partners are more
efficient when playing together than when not, whereas no member of <i>Barça</i>’s
trident is finding the net more easily when MSN is complete than when
not. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWGsKOJgOLvneOak6q4LJzvIrZA6f_eo-doidMUpyREWDI95sVVal3vehxM972x7TY-KL7F65D31agFseQWYpBNarpeCc2bDCpZ3iugIfs3uN5pFy3DFAWY4O6JgITXMNNObZvID6qnsq3/s1600/fig+1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWGsKOJgOLvneOak6q4LJzvIrZA6f_eo-doidMUpyREWDI95sVVal3vehxM972x7TY-KL7F65D31agFseQWYpBNarpeCc2bDCpZ3iugIfs3uN5pFy3DFAWY4O6JgITXMNNObZvID6qnsq3/s400/fig+1.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.56px; line-height: 14.784px;">Fig. 1: Goal-scoring performance as part of trident (bar) relative to when not part of trident (100%-line)</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">As can be
seen in Fig. 1, the numbers are most extreme for Neymar and for Bale. During 90 minutes on
the field with both Messi and Suárez, Neymar scored, on average, 0.4 penalty-adjusted goals. When not part of the trident, in contrast, the captain of the Brazilian
national team managed to score slightly more than 1 goal per 90 minutes. Neymar already played
for over 1,000 minutes for <i>Barça</i> as not part of the trident this season and
almost 2,000 as part of the trident. So even though the numbers for the current
season alone are naturally more sensitive than the aggregated ones, there is a
solid basis for comparison.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The scoring
numbers for Gareth Bale are almost mirror images of Neymar’s. When not part of
BBC, the Welshman scored slightly more than half a field goal so far during 90
mins; when part of BBC, 1.2 goals per 90 mins on average. This season so far, Bale has
thus been more than twice as productive when part of BBC than when not and his
bar in Fig. 1 actually extends beyond what is shown. Bale has been out injured
quite a bit though and so there is less performance data on him than would be desirable. Still, he
already played in over 800 minutes as part of the BBC constellation and in
almost 700 as not part thereof.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">So the synergism of BBC vs. the cannibalism of MSN turns out to be all the more true for the current season.
Whereas BBC appear to be setting each other up to score more and more, <i>Barça</i>’s
trident is not – yet(?) – showing any signs of such improvement. </span>We may well
recall from the January post that findings regarding BBC’s synergism and MSN’s
cannibalism where quite much lessoned though by the fact that the constituent members
of MSN combined were still more efficient than the ones of BBC combined. Let’s
see if this still holds true for the current season. Turns out it does not! So
far, the sum of the average number of goals scored by Messi, Neymar and Suárez
during 90 minutes this season is 2.5, compared to 3 for the sum of BBC’s members.
Furthermore, 90 minutes of actually fielding MSN together so far resulted in 2.1
goals, per 90 minutes, vs. 3.5 goals in the case of BBC.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Why then, one
naturally wonders, are <i>Barça</i> already this season's uncrowned <i>La Liga</i> champion, with the <i>merengues</i> lagging ten points behind? Although both teams scored and conceded about equally in the league, the scoring data support a twofold answer. First, whereas the above
analysis focused only on efficiency, i.e. the average number of (penalty-adjusted)
goals per 90 minutes, naturally, efficacy, i.e. the actual total number of
(penalty-adjusted) goals scored, is also crucial. Concretely, both Benzema and
Bale have been injured quite some time, making that the members of BBC
have played slightly short of a combined 7,000 minutes so far this season, in <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">La Liga </i>and Champions League together.
Suárez, Neymar and Messi already have more than 8,500 minutes on their combined
season’s teller. The efficacy of those three combined is actually
higher than the one of Cristiano, Benzema and Bale combined: 78.5
penalty-adjusted goals vs. 76.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Second, the crux to understanding the differential in terms of team outcomes is "goal
importance", a measure of how many incremental points one’s goals actually
provide to one’s team. Cristiano, for instance, is
the undisputed top scorer so far, with 37 penalty-adjusted goals. Suárez has 31, six less. Yet, Suárez’
goals often led <i>Barça</i> to take the lead and/or to win a game, whereas more than a
few of Cristiano's goals didn’t actually result in Real Madrid gaining
any more points from matches (e.g. neither of Cristiano’s four goals against
both Malmö or Celta mattered). The total number of point increments for <i>Barça</i> as a
direct result of goals scored by its trident members this season to date amounts to 48.5, compared to 37.5 in the case of Real Madrid (Benzema’s 24 penalty-adjusted goals actually yielded hist team more points so far
than did Cristiano’s 37). This underlines the added value of a multi-measure
analysis when it comes to top scorers, which has been the subject of a number of
earlier posts in this blog, also detailing the goal-importance measure.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Let us
conclude the analysis by looking at which player is most pivotal in the <i>blaugrana</i>'s
scoring as a team. I propose to do this by comparing how often a team (not just the trident) scores with and without a player on the field (a similar analysis for Real Madrid is prohibited by
Cristiano not having been on the field for only a minute). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4deVJQA2dyd49QUHQdFlG0Ql53n1icJqwkg9iNkmvaOHtyq3PJd7H9m715DKxDbQRTAZ1T3I0TYeMhewpNckVJws6oUWGgU3pj8aGZ6kseMljawjMIu7nCMtn3lNoygWrBPH-bAQ_oLfo/s1600/fig+2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="233" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4deVJQA2dyd49QUHQdFlG0Ql53n1icJqwkg9iNkmvaOHtyq3PJd7H9m715DKxDbQRTAZ1T3I0TYeMhewpNckVJws6oUWGgU3pj8aGZ6kseMljawjMIu7nCMtn3lNoygWrBPH-bAQ_oLfo/s400/fig+2.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.56px; line-height: 14.784px;">Fig. 2: Avg. number of </span><i style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 10.56px; line-height: 14.784px;">Barça </i><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.56px; line-height: 14.784px;">goals per game with and without player having been on the pitch</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Although
<i>Barça</i> turn out to score more often without Suárez on the field, the above
discussion on goal importance illustrates why this probably should not be
overemphasized. The main insight is that the role of Neymar turns out to be
even more critical in the current season than for the aggregated data: with
Neymar on the field, <i>Barça</i> managed to score 2.76 goals, vs. 1.89 without the Brazilian. The explanation hereof in light of Neymar being both the least
efficacious as well as the least efficient of the three members of MSN? As for the
aggregated data, of all possible combinations (i.e. solo, duos, trio), the one
in which they were most efficient for both Messi and Suárez has been in
combination with Neymar only. The presence of the Brazilian seems to enable his
strike partners to score, this season more than ever. Most probably, he is the
one who destabilizes the opponent, even more than Messi does, which in turn is
what creates goal-scoring opportunities. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
tompvhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07038797867793544042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2516315811350613646.post-72065050238133182282016-02-25T07:24:00.000+01:002016-07-12T10:35:29.431+02:00The Birth of the Aging Striker?<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">During the
Champions League round-of-16 first legs, one thing worth noticing was that the ones to open the score for the all-star teams of Real Madrid and PSG
were “old-timers” and club top scorers Cristiano Ronaldo (31) and Zlatan Ibrahimovic (34),
respectively. What is more, Zlatan has now scored in each of his last nine(!) appearances for PSG, including Champions League, Ligue 1 and French Cup. In the only one of their last ten encounters PSG did not manage to score, the Swedish veteran was not fielded. </span><br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHJhHM9T5v07XEX7_BnROcnWUzEpEI9BgnwoTfkoINXNTuxHu0PFnESICVn3YZhCKthkQB7VHGZVnIGxgHE4dXCJ8hZzu6PfkpSWZsGXhlCTU56KjCsPZ3lvR7JBmG-c-TtiadsZa69XeV/s1600/Ibrahimovic.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHJhHM9T5v07XEX7_BnROcnWUzEpEI9BgnwoTfkoINXNTuxHu0PFnESICVn3YZhCKthkQB7VHGZVnIGxgHE4dXCJ8hZzu6PfkpSWZsGXhlCTU56KjCsPZ3lvR7JBmG-c-TtiadsZa69XeV/s320/Ibrahimovic.JPG" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: telegraaf.nl</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Meanwhile, Jamie Vardy, aged 29, is leading the Premier-League’s "pichichi". An unlikely feat, particularly given that, at the age of 24 – generally considered already quite
“old” for a striker – Vardy seemed to have reached his terminal in the fifth tier of
English football. During the 2014 FIFA World Cup, the <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-28254123"><span style="color: #3d85c6;">BBC published an article</span></a> claiming that, in accordance with popular wisdom, a football player peaks at the age of 27.5. Naturally, goalkeepers are expected to peak above and strikers below this average. </span>Are Vardy, Zlatan and others defying logic then? Or could it be the logic rather
than these players that is dated? </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">As you
probably rightfully noticed, all of the above examples I carefully
cherry-picked. For instance, there was no mention of the opening goals by youngsters Dybala and Draxler, both 22 years of age. In order to see if something
of interest may actually be going on, let’s be slightly more scientific. As of
currently, the top-10 scorers active in the five main European leagues,
including any goals they may have scored in the Champions or Europa Leagues and
with penalties counting for half a field goal, are, in order: Cristiano
Ronaldo, Suárez, Lewandowski, Higuaín, Aubameyang, Ibrahimovic, Benzema,
Müller, Aduriz and Messi. Their average age is slightly above 29 years and 6
months (median age: 28.44). For strikers – moreover, the top ones in Europe at
this very moment – that seems pretty old. It begs the question, “are top
strikers – as is the general population – actually getting older?”</span><br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFKkzu0RxWtuFWXbuGHDCbL_2IcJiMCnOhJSGeft1c5hW4-Gxn71MOEMm4h2GoAUXWUmPwBbCZOUc7K6aoSKppksBBdm2coqw6cQLRLkl4yGHQEig1wMhOnQcCxOd3zCXeY9wIonclz7Xp/s1600/CR7.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="265" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFKkzu0RxWtuFWXbuGHDCbL_2IcJiMCnOhJSGeft1c5hW4-Gxn71MOEMm4h2GoAUXWUmPwBbCZOUc7K6aoSKppksBBdm2coqw6cQLRLkl4yGHQEig1wMhOnQcCxOd3zCXeY9wIonclz7Xp/s400/CR7.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: marca.com</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">In order to
investigate this question, I turn to the “Golden Shoe” (or "Golden Boot"), an annual trophy awarded to the most prolific scorer in any national league within Europe (since 1997, adjusted by a coefficient depending on the strength of the league). The Golden Shoe is being awarded since the 1967-1968 season, when Eusébio was the first
to try it on. For each year since, I computed the average age of the scorers that
made it to the podium (top-3). Importantly, the winner of this award
is not elected but rather results from having scored most goals. Hence, any
changes that may appear over time won’t resemble changing preferences but
rather an evolution of the game and/or scorers as such. </span>For the running season, I include the current top-3 in the Golden-Shoe ranking: Barça’s 29-year-old Suárez, Napoli’s 28-year-old Higuaín and Benfica’s 31-year-old Jonas. The below chart indicates the average age of each season’s top-3.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVuZzMAQypcuFu4TW_R4ZgcVdBoxo7s0Vz3qA5XcuSfoMoc6Ez-WBl-NwehxLrj7bttRn9p2oFPk5kWqWevPW4ja-5yhBIbGvKshcgUBJvyCDvlGJy5VlF2YXMtpayMGZAOPbuEJNYz6H2/s1600/chart+1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="340" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVuZzMAQypcuFu4TW_R4ZgcVdBoxo7s0Vz3qA5XcuSfoMoc6Ez-WBl-NwehxLrj7bttRn9p2oFPk5kWqWevPW4ja-5yhBIbGvKshcgUBJvyCDvlGJy5VlF2YXMtpayMGZAOPbuEJNYz6H2/s640/chart+1.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Figure 1: Average age of "Golden Shoe" award top-3 (years on X-axis; age on Y-axis)</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">At first
sight, there is no trend clearly emerging and what mainly grabs the eye are the
many fluctuations. I next include a linear trend-line, hinting to some general trend. </span>The important thing to note is the trend-line's upward slope, indicative of an increase in average age over time.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvp4y3e_F81fuLKj0pkrv0D7xQ4VguIkHZs7D8Ttpu3EDqupYSZVLHSCcN_AlMKb9g8KuCsLuv00Kpjb2SYOQuUH6tdNdsPC6_y9_GsCi2eQcitaeaAQSDtQwDmC1sCqGjg7k_PuyMPCgo/s1600/chart+2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="340" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvp4y3e_F81fuLKj0pkrv0D7xQ4VguIkHZs7D8Ttpu3EDqupYSZVLHSCcN_AlMKb9g8KuCsLuv00Kpjb2SYOQuUH6tdNdsPC6_y9_GsCi2eQcitaeaAQSDtQwDmC1sCqGjg7k_PuyMPCgo/s640/chart+2.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Figure 2: Average age of "Golden Shoe" award top-3 (years on X-axis; age on Y-axis).<br />Actual data in blue; linear trend-line in red.</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The next
graph depicts the non-linear trend-line that is closest to the data and which is readily supported
by Excel. This trend-line starts off at slightly below 25 years of age and increases - let it be not monotonically - to nearly 29 years. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi14NMoAfBjuBquIn1Gb7NIkvILJZDnCEWuKV9_K1IQkDo3rxCKSYK1t-0CeYZs6OXSONsFaAAexUC_ufbe1ctQsNfwUTe7FIET5Rz8GM1GYxvGej5wv2bH5KMol7wSZzJ1fyZgzHDO-GLo/s1600/chart+3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="341" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi14NMoAfBjuBquIn1Gb7NIkvILJZDnCEWuKV9_K1IQkDo3rxCKSYK1t-0CeYZs6OXSONsFaAAexUC_ufbe1ctQsNfwUTe7FIET5Rz8GM1GYxvGej5wv2bH5KMol7wSZzJ1fyZgzHDO-GLo/s640/chart+3.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Figure 3: Average age of "Golden Shoe" award top-3 (years on X-axis; age on Y-axis).<br />Actual data in blue; non-linear trend-line in red.</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
For those readers who know about statistics, the R<sup>2</sup>-values neither of the linear nor of the non-linear trend-line are high. However, the Spearman rank coefficient of season and age is 0.29 and significantly different from 0, suggesting that there is indeed an upward trend in topscorers' age over time. Even if from a
strictly scientific viewpoint the evidence is limited, I could draw a parallel with global warming: the possibility of a few years difference over
a less-than-50-year period may still be worth some consideration, wouldn’t
you think? Here's what Aritz Aduriz (35) has to say about that.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><br /></span></div>
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tompvhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07038797867793544042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2516315811350613646.post-42240372021955556742016-01-22T13:16:00.000+01:002016-04-01T16:59:37.507+02:00Barça’s Trident vs. Real’s BBC: Synergies or Cannibals?<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">During the
past weekend in <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">La Liga</i>, no less than
ten goals were scored by <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Barça</i>’s and Real
Madrid’s super trios, divided evenly between both. Moreover, each constituent
member – Messi, Neymar and Suárez vs. Bale, Benzema and Cristiano Ronaldo,
respectively – got himself on the score sheet. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">At first
sight, one would have to conclude that both trios work splendidly. Indeed, both teams already collected a Champions League trophy
on the back of their respective tridents. But let's have a closer look at last weekend's performances. Both teams played one half with their complete trident and
one half with an incomplete one and whereas Real Madrid managed all of their five goals during
the half their super trio were united and none during the one they weren’t, <i>Barça </i>only scored two goals – one of which a Messi penalty – during the half with their trident in tact. Additionally, Suárez completed his hat-trick entirely during the half when one
of his strike partners – Messi – was no longer fielded. </span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The important question
arising then is, “Do these players actually make each other better?” Concretely,
on average during a 90-minute game, do they score more goals when combined than
the sum of the individuals, when not operating in a trident (i.e. are they “synergistic”?) or, instead, are they rather “stealing” each others goals, e.g. by
being at the end of assists that otherwise a teammate would
have scored (i.e. “cannibalistic”)? </span></div>
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To answer
these questions and to better understand what and if there is actually something
meaningful going on in terms of discriminant performances between both
tridents, in terms of individual vs. combined performance, we naturally need to
consider more data. Thus, in preparation for this post, I collected information
about all the goals scored by Bale, Benzema and Cristiano Ronaldo as well as by Messi,
Neymar and Suárez since they were united at their respective clubs (seasons ’13-’14
and ’14-’15, respectively) to date and considered what combination had been on the
field at the time of scoring. As I do elsewhere, I take into account both <i>La Liga </i>and Champions League games, counting
penalties for half a (field) goal. The main findings can be summarized as follows:</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWOyPo2-tOLi4eTYMR6Sjrq4nu5tzwx23009X5NOi-lWCWNVtIuqlX7DXLPffT4iTstTmkvXmcN4Ng273VC16BCT5jYmlFqW4cdrvDXdG4gLdOz2WEoxdOxjR_gmdWl9_bT8U4aqfswoLj/s1600/Messi+go.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="141" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWOyPo2-tOLi4eTYMR6Sjrq4nu5tzwx23009X5NOi-lWCWNVtIuqlX7DXLPffT4iTstTmkvXmcN4Ng273VC16BCT5jYmlFqW4cdrvDXdG4gLdOz2WEoxdOxjR_gmdWl9_bT8U4aqfswoLj/s320/Messi+go.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEionGOGHBVLXrb0y-cb7SnQ8U2VGA5CaadTm7MH3mxsFZbAEbjvw7fqWPcadWbpga-5FtL2GYYUPqAFL4gds6c6imYu5UtLeqMF_Q69IvYNPp4O_PK8iWIlZw9qXdk3ud7lXwpxKbiQpedz/s1600/Neymar+go.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="148" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEionGOGHBVLXrb0y-cb7SnQ8U2VGA5CaadTm7MH3mxsFZbAEbjvw7fqWPcadWbpga-5FtL2GYYUPqAFL4gds6c6imYu5UtLeqMF_Q69IvYNPp4O_PK8iWIlZw9qXdk3ud7lXwpxKbiQpedz/s320/Neymar+go.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgh36SO8ih3jv7UT3N67TWWqjzMbadjUk9wiponkNBDBYsM5F6KpuhyzzDkMHfRI6Xclw6HbxmOsvpEZ_-yWOAQj1w5r9_OLuITAM8KX9j2dmezmmS6Lu0YEEP5kbR_ouquKXhaQ7UcEtEI/s1600/suarez+go.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="148" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgh36SO8ih3jv7UT3N67TWWqjzMbadjUk9wiponkNBDBYsM5F6KpuhyzzDkMHfRI6Xclw6HbxmOsvpEZ_-yWOAQj1w5r9_OLuITAM8KX9j2dmezmmS6Lu0YEEP5kbR_ouquKXhaQ7UcEtEI/s320/suarez+go.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Table 1: Comparing efficiency (i.e. avg. number of goals scored<br />
per 90 mins. on the field) as part and when not part of <i>MSN</i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsXOwnoUqcT8mY7Hm_9VW8fP7huk-t3AYCnDuzby9KJ_Zd7sxPiF-lVwGHOPkTf6m0oBQc9_MVhisMWwxz13ApW2lcvK_l0jJOym_NXa1GvJplmQGOkhoGqH2Kj0jFz3icaDZF0AoFb8Ad/s1600/Bale+go.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="148" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsXOwnoUqcT8mY7Hm_9VW8fP7huk-t3AYCnDuzby9KJ_Zd7sxPiF-lVwGHOPkTf6m0oBQc9_MVhisMWwxz13ApW2lcvK_l0jJOym_NXa1GvJplmQGOkhoGqH2Kj0jFz3icaDZF0AoFb8Ad/s320/Bale+go.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1dk2s5oxvMYmRDNkkBF3tP0YX8HtriD7Ge1NeJtI_jzGGSS3_auvwluEuY_99nAexNqt8KHO3D1mKCzhj3X7qS9TtoyV1yMovgPM48JnJ7NnkRDAPi1tVmMr9NrBO1tpM9GoJinPZh_kr/s1600/Benzema+go.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="143" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1dk2s5oxvMYmRDNkkBF3tP0YX8HtriD7Ge1NeJtI_jzGGSS3_auvwluEuY_99nAexNqt8KHO3D1mKCzhj3X7qS9TtoyV1yMovgPM48JnJ7NnkRDAPi1tVmMr9NrBO1tpM9GoJinPZh_kr/s320/Benzema+go.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgm1oh2LSmofGV8f14tWyHZE9UPUXOhqtDUmrkQd4Av62aNHkoT1K8VSAw8rl7XAiYjLXndrDKaBbtxE0V1iMS72Y5DZnW0Azrz95Z4GGBRrMmlW9a1Rcu3ZZN-x4RjpGMVqL2aeYENpIU/s1600/Cristiano+go.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="142" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgm1oh2LSmofGV8f14tWyHZE9UPUXOhqtDUmrkQd4Av62aNHkoT1K8VSAw8rl7XAiYjLXndrDKaBbtxE0V1iMS72Y5DZnW0Azrz95Z4GGBRrMmlW9a1Rcu3ZZN-x4RjpGMVqL2aeYENpIU/s320/Cristiano+go.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Table 2: Comparing efficiency (i.e. avg. number of goals scored<br />
per 90 mins. on the field) as part and when not part of <i>BBC</i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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As it turns out, only one of the six players, Cristiano Ronaldo, actually scored more goals when part of his trident than when not. Some level of "cannibalism" may be expected, e.g. as penalties and free kicks may fall to a teammate in the absence of strike partners, but the relative performance of <i>Barça</i>'s three main strikers when vs. when not combined is quite startling, as depicted in the below graph. The red line indicates each player's respective scoring level (100%) when <i>not </i>part of the trident; each bar indicates the corresponding player's scoring level when part of the trident relative to this line:<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfdsvPMXU5Ctxm38mz2fmRRHwDaelCJpJAxx_OYUl0lpKoNWrikk-2kLEQPVJHMeAyW1yIwOFDbmDV0UBEaDEWICqvlVsmf1FzeZJoNI6OFJtsAeirIZ3DfVp8m8tojr-yj9V4jWdh64ZR/s1600/BBC+vs+MSN.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="252" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfdsvPMXU5Ctxm38mz2fmRRHwDaelCJpJAxx_OYUl0lpKoNWrikk-2kLEQPVJHMeAyW1yIwOFDbmDV0UBEaDEWICqvlVsmf1FzeZJoNI6OFJtsAeirIZ3DfVp8m8tojr-yj9V4jWdh64ZR/s400/BBC+vs+MSN.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 1: Goal-scoring performance as part of trident relative to when not part of trident</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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It can clearly be seen that <i>Barça</i>'s trident's scoring performance falls well short of Messi, Neymar and Suárez' scoring performances as individuals (or duos). In fact, as a trio, <i>MSN</i>, on average, scored 2.14 goals per 90 minutes, whereas the sum of Messi's, Neymar's and Suárez' average scoring performances per 90 minutes, when not part of the trio, adds up to 3.22 - over a full (field) goal more. Moreover, the <i>Barça </i>player <i>least</i> cannibalized by the trident, Messi, is still more negatively affected as compared to Real's <i>most</i> negatively affected player, Bale. Real Madrid's <i>BBC</i> scored, on avg. per 90 minutes, 2.33 goals vs. 2.44 as the sum of the individuals' performances - less than a meaningful difference. </div>
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Is there something going horribly wrong then with <i>Barça</i>'s trident relative to <i>BBC</i>? Yes and no. On the one hand, yes, as <i>Barça</i>'s individual trident members <i>all </i>appear to be sacrificing a substantial portion of their efficiency when operating as a trident. On the other hand, no, because, in absolute terms, overall, Messi, Neymar and Suárez still scored more goals than Bale, Benzema and Cristiano, on average, per 90 minutes (2.56 vs. 2.36). Thus, it would be harsh to claim the former are underperforming compared to the latter. What does clearly emerge, is that <i>Barça</i>'s trident still show ample potential to up their performance if they find ways to create more synergies among the constituent players.</div>
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Critical question: now that we know that <i>Barça </i>have been substantially more efficient when not fielding Messi, Neymar and Suárez all together, would it actually help the team to keep one of them on the bench? To assess this, we need to consider the goal-scoring performance of the team as a whole (not just the trident) when fielding the trident and when not. After all, if one is not to field a member of <i>MSN</i>, someone else, e.g. Munir, with his own relative (in)efficiency will take his place. <i>Barça</i>'s average number of goals scored per 90 minutes turns out to have been very similar when having fielded and when not having fielded the trident (2.60 vs. 2.63), which leads to yet another question: as the team turned out no less efficient without the trident, could FC Barcelona actually save itself quite some money by selling off either Messi, Neymar or Suárez, without sacrificing team goals? And if so, which one of them? </div>
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Hereto, I repeated the exercise of considering <i>team </i>goals, this time with and without each Messi, Neymar and Suárez, respectively, having been on the field at the time of scoring. The results are depicted in the below graph. The blue bars indicate the average number of team goals per 90 minutes with the corresponding player having been on the field; the red ones, without him having been on the pitch - from the start of the '14-'15 season to date:</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVGLWtNt92FbBD9B0mu7ggxd2aTj4lSYGvzJCXGXjy5ShThcJPrZge-w33p17X_CFcjdow7eppmeD7CJv6GrHiC9OMaqy2vmR5LheAYxmUTCfkJ1lVCWJBnf0rBTwgX-YPM-fHZl5IDcG-/s1600/MSN+v2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="233" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVGLWtNt92FbBD9B0mu7ggxd2aTj4lSYGvzJCXGXjy5ShThcJPrZge-w33p17X_CFcjdow7eppmeD7CJv6GrHiC9OMaqy2vmR5LheAYxmUTCfkJ1lVCWJBnf0rBTwgX-YPM-fHZl5IDcG-/s400/MSN+v2.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 2: Avg. number of <i>Barça </i>goals per game with and without player having been on the pitch</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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From this, it seems that what <i>Barça</i> don't want to do is sell Neymar: not only did the <i>blaugrana </i>score more goals with the Brazilian on the field than with either the Argentinian or the Uruguayan, but also did <i>Barça</i>, on average, score fewer goals per game without Neymar than without either one of his strike partners. Furthermore, as evidenced by the descriptive statistics listed in Table 1, both Messi and Suárez found their most efficient combination of all possible ones (i.e. trident, duos or alone) in duo with Neymar. One likely explanation would be that Neymar is the one mainly able to unbalance the opponent, which is what creates goal-scoring opportunities for the team.</div>
tompvhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07038797867793544042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2516315811350613646.post-1226558578042945402015-12-31T22:42:00.000+01:002016-01-11T15:26:21.763+01:00Europe's Hottest Prospects Going Into the New Year<div class="MsoNormal">
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">With the
final whistle of 2015's last match having been blown and the opening of
the winter <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">mercato</i> being imminent, an excellent moment has come to re-assess the goal-scoring performances of Europe’s top
scorers. In previous posts, I developed a multi-measure analysis, considering top scorers’ performance according to four meaningful dimensions, in
addition to the simple number of goals scored: efficacy, efficiency, relative
efficacy and importance of goals scored. No less than four different top
scorers top one of these five rankings, underlining the value of the
multi-measure approach. </span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">In the below analysis, as before, I will be taking into account appearances and goals
scored in the five main domestic leagues in Europe as well as in the UEFA
Champions and Europa leagues. To be considered a top scorer at this stage of
the season, I require a player to have scored ten goals or more, a condition
satisfied by 25 players, coming from 20 teams <span style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 16px;">–</span>FC Barcelona, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, PSG and… Leicester City have two each. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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The top 10 of simple top scorers as of 01/01/2016 is being headed by Cristiano Ronaldo:</div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #666666; font-family: "symbol"; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;">·<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 7pt;"> </span></span><i style="color: #666666; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;"><span lang="EN-GB"><u>“Simple” goals</u></span></i><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;"><u>, or the number of goals scored:</u></span><br />
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;"><u><br /></u></span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXpnp56O2ZQbOyLtBFyBv3PZmYb03qX6L_0LhRjw_NBdaojxtIC1fKlqFx4LlMVNHL8h34nEtg95rO8z-bmD85N8ltwODWFAt_Q5LnQyOCBV_rBTxfHLE72OMmFS7KZuwbpR9xmXi6JToI/s1600/010116+Table+1v2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="184" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXpnp56O2ZQbOyLtBFyBv3PZmYb03qX6L_0LhRjw_NBdaojxtIC1fKlqFx4LlMVNHL8h34nEtg95rO8z-bmD85N8ltwODWFAt_Q5LnQyOCBV_rBTxfHLE72OMmFS7KZuwbpR9xmXi6JToI/s320/010116+Table+1v2.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: 'trebuchet ms', trebuchet, verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 15.4px;">Tabel 1. Simple ranking: Europe's top scorers by number of goals scored</span></td></tr>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;">Observation 1: </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Only one of this happy bunch (of 25) has a contract due to expire mid 2016 and can thus be snatched up without a transfer fee: Zlatan Ibrahimovic.</span></span><br />
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #666666; font-family: "symbol"; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;">·<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 7pt;"> </span></span><i style="color: #666666; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;"><span lang="EN-GB"><u>“Efficacy”</u></span></i><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;"><u>, or the number of penalty-adjusted goals scored:</u></span></span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjDc9cKsqYmNxFZPXeSGw-r0lsYiDoSVow-NbEUELnyySRgtcVVgPd33wOjqSP0Pnkmnwi2EevI4keHhm_oI9dNvnA5OSN6UdI6rgmrmeuL_xpaPJ4izezpOwUdncZ7tblRBv3SSZhwMyy/s1600/110116+Table+2v6.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="169" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjDc9cKsqYmNxFZPXeSGw-r0lsYiDoSVow-NbEUELnyySRgtcVVgPd33wOjqSP0Pnkmnwi2EevI4keHhm_oI9dNvnA5OSN6UdI6rgmrmeuL_xpaPJ4izezpOwUdncZ7tblRBv3SSZhwMyy/s320/110116+Table+2v6.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: '\'trebuchet ms\'', trebuchet, verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">Tabel 2. Efficacy ranking: Converted penalties count for half a (field) goal</span></td></tr>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;">Observation 2: </span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">After making the proposed adjustment for
penalties (i.e. valued at 0.5x), Lewandowski retains his top spot in the <i>efficacy</i> ranking, let it be shared with Cristiano – with Lewa having needed less time
on the field to score his 22.</span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #666666; font-family: 'trebuchet ms', trebuchet, verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;">Observation 3: </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Bayern are the only team with two players in the
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efficacious duo in Europe.</span></span><br />
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "symbol";">·<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 7pt;"> </span></span><i><span lang="EN-GB"><u>“Efficiency”</u></span></i><span lang="EN-GB"><u>, or the average number of penalty-adjusted goals scored per 90 minutes on the pitch:</u></span></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;"><span lang="EN-GB"><u><br /></u></span></span></span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSyxqLmSyj3zncGgF5TQTg9I_r7pY_FWhZ5FhBpOUvBuui9AdDXI39Uv3iQRQB9i0kvazc9ukXQE2vJxuGWXsmm6xldhri-bVydwZ278kq4ruF7mLUInLoqHrIF-GqtkO2kCjdiI9wpzgf/s1600/110116+Table+3v2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="177" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSyxqLmSyj3zncGgF5TQTg9I_r7pY_FWhZ5FhBpOUvBuui9AdDXI39Uv3iQRQB9i0kvazc9ukXQE2vJxuGWXsmm6xldhri-bVydwZ278kq4ruF7mLUInLoqHrIF-GqtkO2kCjdiI9wpzgf/s320/110116+Table+3v2.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: '\'trebuchet ms\'', trebuchet, verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">Tabel 3. Efficiency ranking: Avg. number of penalty-adjusted goals scored during 90 minutes</span></td></tr>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;">Observation 4: </span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">While Lewandowski is still Europe’s most
efficacious top scorer, he no longer is the most <i>efficient </i>one. Furthermore, Lewa-Müller is no longer the
most efficient duo. Benzema-Cristiano is the only couple in European football
that, combined, scored more than two(!) (penalty-adjusted) goals on average per 90
minutes on the field.</span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;">Observation 6: </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Agirretxe and Ighalo continue to spearhead their
respective team’s attack: both top scorers’ respective goals accounted for no
less than 67% and 64% of Real Sociedad’s and Watford’s (penalty-adjusted)
total, respectively. Indeed, it would be hard to overestimate the reliance of
both teams on their top scorer’s goals.</span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;">Observation 7: </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Lukaku’s emergence, with a 44%-share of
Everton’s (penalty-adjusted) goal tally, is well-worth pointing out.</span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;">Observation 8: </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Betis’ Castro and Rayo Vallecano’s Guerra both (temporarily) dropped out of the <i>rel. efficacy ranking</i>. Although each accounted for well over 50% of his respective team’s goal total, neither
managed to put in double-digit goals and is thus, at this point, considered a
top scorer.</span></span><br />
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<!--StartFragment--><!--EndFragment--></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;"><span lang="EN-GB"><span lang="EN-GB"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "symbol";">·<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 7pt;"> </span></span><i><span lang="EN-GB"><u>“Importance”</u></span></i><span lang="EN-GB"><u>, or the average of the virtual and eventual incremental points won by the player’s team because of a player's goals:</u></span></span></span></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;"><span lang="EN-GB"><span lang="EN-GB"><span lang="EN-GB"><u><br /></u></span></span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_Q9sevq9ZAWQv7dS2tQ2wlSwXAp4o1YQFkerJFWtrSXs5YJyPtiUPVbqEVR15IgfL_dJqF_9rpN4aNNTsJVBkPY2MsU5yxUQ9yMLYXHSJTdrPgNYacfz1wRltq0PVCIFCzOgK5UBbf8c_/s1600/010116+Table+5v2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="188" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_Q9sevq9ZAWQv7dS2tQ2wlSwXAp4o1YQFkerJFWtrSXs5YJyPtiUPVbqEVR15IgfL_dJqF_9rpN4aNNTsJVBkPY2MsU5yxUQ9yMLYXHSJTdrPgNYacfz1wRltq0PVCIFCzOgK5UBbf8c_/s320/010116+Table+5v2.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: 'trebuchet ms', trebuchet, verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 15.4px;">Tabel 5. Importance ranking: Avg. of virtual and eventual incremental points won by team because of top scorer's goals</span></td></tr>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;"><br /></span></span>
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;">Observation 9: </span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">The prophecy at the end of the previous
post has become reality: Jamie Vardy has become the most <i>important</i> top scorer
on European fields. What is more, no tandem in Europe has gained more points for
their team than the duo Vardy-Mahrez did for Leicester. All the more remarkable
considering that Leicester does not play in the Europa - let alone Champions - League and thus
both stars-on-the-rise had relatively fewer games to win points for their team. And that they play their games
in the Premiership, Europe’s most competitive domestic league. And that
Leicester is a club of relatively modest means – as evidenced by both top scorers
original acquisition prices (</span></span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">£</span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">1m for Vardy; </span></span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">£</span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">350k for Mahrez)...</span></span><br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjB5tWCrnvQ0IXEfBXMMIyhmwctsfnJl-DMUfg4xCz_xvap9RJJV7f3NM0jy878p8T3h8fbVmRQttU1wmIJ2g_Tp1aqQTjaPN5Ngxc-xo9QvvsqULz3QEZgs9ufSJKrj45ULI6P6Y6EE63F/s1600/Vardy+Mahrez_Guardian.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="192" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjB5tWCrnvQ0IXEfBXMMIyhmwctsfnJl-DMUfg4xCz_xvap9RJJV7f3NM0jy878p8T3h8fbVmRQttU1wmIJ2g_Tp1aqQTjaPN5Ngxc-xo9QvvsqULz3QEZgs9ufSJKrj45ULI6P6Y6EE63F/s320/Vardy+Mahrez_Guardian.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: theguardian.com</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;">Observation 10: </span></span><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 12pt;">Did you notice the only player to
feature in the top ranking according to all five dimensions? Hint 1: It’s
one of the many considered not good enough by Louis van Gaal for his struggling Man. United squad. Hint 2:
Little pea </span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: Wingdings; font-size: 13.2px; line-height: 18.48px;">J</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">That’s right, it’s Chicharito. Quite
an achievement considering the Mexican sniper arrived in a new – and quite a different – country and league only in September!</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjkiGD2FQLpF1YZU3oamgD4Lh-Oq6jWmtBYjYH0QIHZ9AR5XedqAaEWgEoPZ3wK7abVcbGtQBk2YBydqMUMdlUnFA_73tDA-qrwWYxFHys-4YUf-IbNsnJQTqfu9CjlPfNzNuFCuVTuC-G/s1600/chicharito-goal.jpg_1718483346.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="181" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjkiGD2FQLpF1YZU3oamgD4Lh-Oq6jWmtBYjYH0QIHZ9AR5XedqAaEWgEoPZ3wK7abVcbGtQBk2YBydqMUMdlUnFA_73tDA-qrwWYxFHys-4YUf-IbNsnJQTqfu9CjlPfNzNuFCuVTuC-G/s320/chicharito-goal.jpg_1718483346.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: telesurtv.net</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></span>
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tompvhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07038797867793544042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2516315811350613646.post-528164149828552272015-11-13T15:30:00.000+01:002016-01-01T10:51:22.518+01:00Batman & Robin, Europe's Most Efficient Duo. But One.<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The
mid-November international break marks a point of reflection for many a club manager.
Some so far performed better than expected, whereas for others it is
quite the opposite. Irrespectively, however, most have set their sights on
players, especially forwards, they feel could make all the difference in their
team. Wenger, allegedly, is thinking of landing Bayer Leverkusen’s Bellarabi. Mourinho is rumoured to have a keen eye on Bellarabi’s teammate Chicharito as well
as on Higuaín and Griezmann. Meanwhile, Benítez is believed to be eager to add
Lewandowski to his <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">merengue</i> squad.
Some of these names seem more obvious than others. In this post, I will shed
light on Europe’s five top leagues’ top scorers’ performance following the
multi-measure method developed earlier. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
As
explained in the previous post, I consider goals scored both in the domestic league
and in the UEFA Champions and Europa Leagues. To qualify
as a top scorer at this stage of the competition, a player must have scored 7 or more goals. Now let’s have a look at those rankings!</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #666666; font-family: "symbol"; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;">·<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><i style="color: #666666; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;"><span lang="EN-GB"><u>“Simple” goals</u></span></i><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;"><u>, or the number of goals scored:</u></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;"><u><br /></u></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIHz_9hQoUoGVZIU_Cl6ex831VU5KqR8M1zWobq28D-s8RTpiIwru06o4MeNKW8DnrNPziT3qFLKeZzdPYr0NQpTFMgGbR68lPSKbx7HcudQY6K-3cN3uf0AK117T-vMJyzhxLYa2U22HV/s1600/Table+1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="197" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIHz_9hQoUoGVZIU_Cl6ex831VU5KqR8M1zWobq28D-s8RTpiIwru06o4MeNKW8DnrNPziT3qFLKeZzdPYr0NQpTFMgGbR68lPSKbx7HcudQY6K-3cN3uf0AK117T-vMJyzhxLYa2U22HV/s320/Table+1.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">Tabel 1. Simple ranking: Europe's top scorers by number of goals scored</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;">Observation 1: Lewandowski, Aubameyang and Müller - all playing in the <i>Bundesliga</i>(!)<i> -</i> aready made up the top three at the end of September, at the time of the previous post. All three of them managed to hold on to their exceptional form.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;"><u><br /></u></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #666666; font-family: "symbol"; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;">·<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><i style="color: #666666; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;"><span lang="EN-GB"><u>“Efficacy”</u></span></i><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;"><u>, or the number of penalty-adjusted goals scored:</u></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;"><u><br /></u></span></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinSwcM8-JNw7IQQ_qdzpBtsWcAhxpaXCUXGsekjMoS0UVIjYiyvY6L5tbsI5Q_szdWv_VjK1COVVxSz-TsWjrIqoiB9bpihZCPDx-jNbhANYXeVI1PyNx3mJf1rGRieHQuznaepuNtcXav/s1600/Table+2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="196" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinSwcM8-JNw7IQQ_qdzpBtsWcAhxpaXCUXGsekjMoS0UVIjYiyvY6L5tbsI5Q_szdWv_VjK1COVVxSz-TsWjrIqoiB9bpihZCPDx-jNbhANYXeVI1PyNx3mJf1rGRieHQuznaepuNtcXav/s320/Table+2.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">Tabel 2. Efficacy ranking: Converted penalties count for half a (field) goal</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;">Observation 2: Counting any converted penalties for half a field goal, Lewandowski distances himself from Aubameyang. The difference between both, on the one hand, and the rest, headed by Müller, on the other, becomes more pronounced.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;"><u><br /></u></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "symbol";">·<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><i><span lang="EN-GB"><u>“Efficiency”</u></span></i><span lang="EN-GB"><u>, or the average number of penalty-adjusted goals scored per 90 minutes on the pitch:</u></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;"><span lang="EN-GB"><u><br /></u></span></span></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtd5jOOf9JG8l4lvm8BB93Mv66h2EEmZr-rYfvB7hjmd6B-7SLk0Yssw-vf9g9smnsQruCrmMUXG1rxX2-DIcx4DBZez2DHFMsLqG89Mg-Pbh2jdGi4GxQXXdTX-ATCw0Nxmy0x8idbdOp/s1600/Table+3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="177" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtd5jOOf9JG8l4lvm8BB93Mv66h2EEmZr-rYfvB7hjmd6B-7SLk0Yssw-vf9g9smnsQruCrmMUXG1rxX2-DIcx4DBZez2DHFMsLqG89Mg-Pbh2jdGi4GxQXXdTX-ATCw0Nxmy0x8idbdOp/s320/Table+3.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">Tabel 3. Efficiency ranking: Avg. number of penalty-adjusted goals scored during 90 minutes</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;"><span lang="EN-GB">Observation 3: The two most efficacious top scorers also turn out to be the most efficient ones. Lewandowski and Aubameyang, on average, score well over one (penalty-adjusted) goal per game.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;"><span lang="EN-GB"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;"><span lang="EN-GB">Observation 4: Of the four top scorers who managed to put in more than one (penalty-adjusted) goal per game, two play for Borussia Dortmund! Fielding both Aubameyang and Reus for 90 minutes so far implied the team would score at least two goals, on average - quite a luxury. Still, Bayern Munich's combination of Lewandowski and Müller yielded even more (penalty-adjusted) goals on average per 90 minutes.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;"><span lang="EN-GB"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgly9x84V9wvFVXGFPriTr_wtImdDRfp8gKX6PEuB3d06eJPsrQesqHZmAAoGEd2ifV0RknWxEBwh2iOwxrV54gBR7zROAOL2DGme0N1LA6W0IcB16bWBwhsabOJaNMoTuBtEZvlRBFyhnU/s1600/futturk.com.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="220" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgly9x84V9wvFVXGFPriTr_wtImdDRfp8gKX6PEuB3d06eJPsrQesqHZmAAoGEd2ifV0RknWxEBwh2iOwxrV54gBR7zROAOL2DGme0N1LA6W0IcB16bWBwhsabOJaNMoTuBtEZvlRBFyhnU/s320/futturk.com.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: futturk.com</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;"><span lang="EN-GB">Observation 5: We see two relatively unknown top scorers pop up, both from lesser <i>La Liga </i>teams. Real Sociedad's Agirretxe and Rayo Vallecano's Guerra have, respectively, been good for slightly more and slightly less than one field goal per 90 minutes played.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;"><span lang="EN-GB"><u><br /></u></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;"><span lang="EN-GB"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "symbol";">·<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><i><span lang="EN-GB"><u>“Relative efficacy”</u></span></i><span lang="EN-GB"><u>, or the percentage of penalty-adjusted goals scored relative to the team:</u></span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;"><span lang="EN-GB"><span lang="EN-GB"><u><br /></u></span></span></span></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhM6SkswAGUpRrv6j77_bHoe_bP8cRBKnIapwvZBChcOMXu-wOkc9eTttP-KjMyXdgu6JLRcI3iR8Iu1uFUeNsqmeRjOngC9AB_Z3e9L6MYKpsk2JYbKsBXXDCXkY8g4LyInILydbB6PcdN/s1600/Table+4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="173" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhM6SkswAGUpRrv6j77_bHoe_bP8cRBKnIapwvZBChcOMXu-wOkc9eTttP-KjMyXdgu6JLRcI3iR8Iu1uFUeNsqmeRjOngC9AB_Z3e9L6MYKpsk2JYbKsBXXDCXkY8g4LyInILydbB6PcdN/s320/Table+4.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">Tabel 4. Relative efficacy ranking: Percentage of team's penalty-adjusted goals scored by top scorer</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0px;">
<span style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0px;">
<span style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;">Observation 6: And here they are again!: Agirretxe and Guerra turn out both not only to have scored around one goal per game on average, but also to have accounted for</span><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;"> 2/3</span><sup><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">rds</span></sup><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;"> of all the goals scored by their respective teams.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;">Observation 7: They are joined at the top of this ranking by Odion Ighalo, already Europe's most relatively efficacious scorer at the end of September. The Nigerian striker continues to make the difference for his team.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;">Observation 8: As opposed to the top four, who, in part, are heading this ranking because of a failure of their teammates to score goals (e.g. all four teams rank in the right-hand side column in their respective national leagues), Jamie Vardy is managing a huge chunk of his team's goals with the whole team cruising through the league.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;"><span lang="EN-GB"><span lang="EN-GB"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "symbol";">·<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><i><span lang="EN-GB"><u>“Importance”</u></span></i><span lang="EN-GB"><u>, or the average of the virtual and eventual incremental points won by the player’s team because of a player's goals:</u></span></span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;"><span lang="EN-GB"><span lang="EN-GB"><span lang="EN-GB"><u><br /></u></span></span></span></span></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGcZpSUuk62TeqWlg0oNYcY87xCgj7oiCQu7vYcXbNlfeZR3nYBppGVE_x9fILtU-yBq4gn_SFzUjdyWKEKBZhVIbOVl_6JbRrl1BTD_WxMEJQ0ITCVWJO1bET5ffiqOqiOAh17jdeeXfq/s1600/Table+5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="199" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGcZpSUuk62TeqWlg0oNYcY87xCgj7oiCQu7vYcXbNlfeZR3nYBppGVE_x9fILtU-yBq4gn_SFzUjdyWKEKBZhVIbOVl_6JbRrl1BTD_WxMEJQ0ITCVWJO1bET5ffiqOqiOAh17jdeeXfq/s320/Table+5.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">Tabel 5. Importance ranking: Avg. of virtual and eventual incremental points won by team because of top scorer's goals</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;"><span lang="EN-GB"><span lang="EN-GB"><span lang="EN-GB">Observation 9: So far in my analysis, he remained largely unnoticed, but Luis Suárez is the top scorer whose goals resulted in most points for his team. Also well worth pointing out is that his teammate Neymar - who, before any adjustment, scored more goals than the Uruguayan - collected less than half of the points for <i>Barça </i>with his goals so far (5.25).</span></span></span></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;"><span lang="EN-GB"><span lang="EN-GB"><span lang="EN-GB">Observation 10: Eye on Vardy. Without his team playing in Europe, as the only player to make it to this ranking's top five, he has managed to earn his team 11 points with his goals already - all within the <i>Premier League</i>, the most competitive national league. Indeed, the Englishman's goal spell is no stranger to Leicester City's extraordinary league position.</span></span></span></span></span></div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , "trebuchet" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-indent: -24px;"><span lang="EN-GB"><span lang="EN-GB"><span lang="EN-GB"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></div>
tompvhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07038797867793544042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2516315811350613646.post-20068797632758680872015-09-29T10:24:00.000+02:002016-01-01T10:51:43.497+01:00Which of Europe's Best Scorers Are On Fire, Really?: A Multi-Measure Analysis<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">With the new
football season now well underway, some of Europe’s top strikers have already
found their best form while others struggle to regain it. Considering
performances in Europe’s five major domestic leagues (Premier League, La Liga,
Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1) as well as its main international team
competitions (UEFA Champions and Europa Leagues) the “happy few” scorers with
already six or more goals to their tally, as of 29/09/15 (morning), are as follows:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><o:p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1srXJxBB8TUh1K5-GyLVFtXDNKNfxKSDSMNrFjxGY-wr9BM8Ba3Utrlg3ZmvRmnTFExPB3f7xzHsZdluScN9s0ek7EDKrY_F1AIRhiZdja15xW67NTwi7HDbZiEXdC-K1rnowpXutSGUm/s1600/Eur+scorers+table+1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="197" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1srXJxBB8TUh1K5-GyLVFtXDNKNfxKSDSMNrFjxGY-wr9BM8Ba3Utrlg3ZmvRmnTFExPB3f7xzHsZdluScN9s0ek7EDKrY_F1AIRhiZdja15xW67NTwi7HDbZiEXdC-K1rnowpXutSGUm/s320/Eur+scorers+table+1.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Tabel 1. Simple ranking: Europe's top scorers by number of goals scored </td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</o:p></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">In my May’s
post, “Which Premier League Top Scorer Would You Like in Your Team?,” I
proposed an evaluation method for top scorers based on multiple measures that
would allow for deeper insight into what lies beyond a simple ranking. In this
post, I will evaluate Europe’s current top scorers by means of this method. A
multi-measure analysis will bear out several critical insights and nuances
about Europe’s on-fire scorers.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><u>“Efficacy”</u></span></i><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><u>,
or the number of penalty-adjusted goals scored:</u><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">For reasons
explained in the May post, I adjust the ranking so that converted penalties
account for half a field goal. Those with an efficacy rating higher than five
are as follows:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-no-proof: yes;"><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id="Picture_x0020_14" o:spid="_x0000_i1028"
type="#_x0000_t75" style='width:203pt;height:121pt;visibility:visible;
mso-wrap-style:square'>
<v:imagedata src="file://localhost/Users/user/Library/Caches/TemporaryItems/msoclip/0/clip_image003.emz"
o:title=""/>
</v:shape><![endif]--><!--[if !vml]--><!--[endif]--></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcxETVNVixHyxUdbfRl-Gq8x9nbA9RZnq3NMvVjVXvDz4q8vroLqmCbNJw6EBnXNs3fHMB-JzHDNIT0znH1etvoLpO5vUeT16zFgkaqh6-g0NlY-us4g8dl1MlaikUSzkcnXkZfW3cgFU9/s1600/Eur+scorers+table+2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="179" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcxETVNVixHyxUdbfRl-Gq8x9nbA9RZnq3NMvVjVXvDz4q8vroLqmCbNJw6EBnXNs3fHMB-JzHDNIT0znH1etvoLpO5vUeT16zFgkaqh6-g0NlY-us4g8dl1MlaikUSzkcnXkZfW3cgFU9/s320/Eur+scorers+table+2.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Tabel 2. Efficacy ranking: Converted penalties count for half a (field) goal</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Observation
1: Making the recommended adjustment for penalties converted, the difference
between Lewandowski’s ten goals and first contenders Aubameyang, Müller and Cristiano Ronaldo (all having converted three penalties) becomes clearer. Indeed,
Lewandowski so far managed to score as many <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">field</i>
goals as both Müller and Ronaldo together.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Observation
2: The penalty adjustment also allows for a better appreciation of the
difference between Real Madrid teammates Cristiano Ronaldo’s eight and Benzema’s six
goals: If Benítez appointed Benzema rather than Ronaldo as penalty taker, Benzema
would have overtaken Ronaldo as the club’s top scorer as Ronaldo would then have scored max. five and Benzema min. six times.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><u>“Efficiency”</u></span></i><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><u>,
or the average number of penalty-adjusted goals scored per 90 minutes on the
pitch:</u><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The
rationale behind the <i>efficiency</i> measure, I explained in the May post.
<i>Efficiency</i>, which reflects a scorer’s average performance during a ninety-minute (i.e full-game) period, is all the more relevant when comparing
across leagues: not all leagues have the same number of match days and some teams additionally compete in Europe whereas others don’t.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Five of
Europe’s top scorers so far have managed to score on average one or more goals
during every ninety minutes on the pitch:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9ka8wHC2cWrNFfN-qEcBkU5-nXDAUI9CLW_ojGAfUvvHAJDWOzzAl4mhf2XMBqqLegLtAw-TlvK_pzwCRYsIdHHCYc0Zh-pBLCS0KYUnXsyBYnfdVzkTIE6-Ibs3r4ezd9iCnPeqlM4_p/s1600/Eur+scorers+table+3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="175" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9ka8wHC2cWrNFfN-qEcBkU5-nXDAUI9CLW_ojGAfUvvHAJDWOzzAl4mhf2XMBqqLegLtAw-TlvK_pzwCRYsIdHHCYc0Zh-pBLCS0KYUnXsyBYnfdVzkTIE6-Ibs3r4ezd9iCnPeqlM4_p/s320/Eur+scorers+table+3.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Tabel 3. Efficiency ranking: Avg. number of penalty-adjusted goals scored during 90 minutes</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Observation
3: To put Lewandowski’s exceptional form in context, not only is he the only
one who managed to almost put two field goals in per ninety minutes, but also has he been well over three times as efficient as Manchester United’s sensational
signing Anthony Martial (efficiency: 0.54; including three games at Monaco) so
far has been this season, for example.</span><br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgarUiBg1VTpeUgPLLe4XwzblgXj48nWsJ4lQQclWIY0qsZ3TLS_Q7iXRQTKqXmOjom7sD9fz-4Jb_lwwcdp0bbmAIAi-IATaiLFz7IK0CQ4tnL0muGWjkVWzDvWHpKXzHxPW0plTufGW2i/s1600/robert-lewandowskis-fuenferpack.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="202" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgarUiBg1VTpeUgPLLe4XwzblgXj48nWsJ4lQQclWIY0qsZ3TLS_Q7iXRQTKqXmOjom7sD9fz-4Jb_lwwcdp0bbmAIAi-IATaiLFz7IK0CQ4tnL0muGWjkVWzDvWHpKXzHxPW0plTufGW2i/s320/robert-lewandowskis-fuenferpack.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: sueddeutsche.de</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Observation
4: Karim Benzema so far has also been extraordinarily efficient, scoring more than
twice as much as Martial, when on the field, as well comfortably outperforming
his teammate Cristiano Ronaldo (efficiency: 0.93).</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><u>“Relative efficacy”</u></span></i><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><u>, or the percentage of penalty-adjusted goals scored relative to the team:</u><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">As
explained in the May post, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">relative
efficacy </i>accounts for the fact that it may well be more complicated to put
goals in if you’re a forward at, say, Watford rather than Bayern Munich or Real Madrid.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYnQuJtl-1nOg8NnGtLGv3Nd3TkU-dkn9-0zQgQDpIr6eOfUOlSuvXUPtyyAdmafCj9gxPQRVR3l8ldkFbPp0RLmwMslvsGQFlelLDBPZQJL724q60xwSznQJvCuslGnwodbQL9ZLRK7UP/s1600/Eur+scorers+table+4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="197" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYnQuJtl-1nOg8NnGtLGv3Nd3TkU-dkn9-0zQgQDpIr6eOfUOlSuvXUPtyyAdmafCj9gxPQRVR3l8ldkFbPp0RLmwMslvsGQFlelLDBPZQJL724q60xwSznQJvCuslGnwodbQL9ZLRK7UP/s320/Eur+scorers+table+4.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Tabel 4. Relative efficacy ranking: Percentage of team's penalty-adjusted goals scored by top scorer</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Observation
5: Note that the relatively most efficacious scorer in Europe, Watford’s Odion
Ighalo, did not even show up in the simple goal top scorer ranking. In
fact, none of these scorers featured in any of the above rankings and it is noteworthy that they play
their football at relatively smaller teams, which partly accounts for why
they managed to score half or more of their team’s (penalty-adjusted) goals.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Observation
6: It is important to note I only consider actual top scorers for these rankings,
e.g. only one Premier League player scored more goals than Bournemouth’s Callum
Wilson. Málaga, for instance, have not managed to score a single goal yet, so
whoever will score their first will attain a 100% relative efficacy (i.e. will have
scored 100% of the team’s goals at that point) – but he wouldn’t be anywhere near a league top
scorer and thus should and would not enter in this ranking. A similar argument
applies to the above <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">efficiency </i>ranking.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><u>“Importance”</u></span></i><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><u>,
or the average of the virtual and eventual incremental points won by the
player’s team because of a player's goals:</u><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The notion
of the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">importance </i>of a goal in terms
of additional points won for the team is critical and is also further detailed
in the May post. Arguably, from a team perspective, it is the single most relevant measure as the team's objective is to maximize points rather than goals. Those top scorers whose goals already earned their team more than five points are:</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXn8ygsCOlQILVx-18SNkdHbUYdWLEc7r-jpKqOybjj0Kloks8-2jzFoqIqy3xzdEr2lUG7WceN_Ud_ECKzcaxgrCEP-eTx0ljwfdrQXX2BcwiKohPl7yC1xTEuIHGWeL8i956Ux7n9nue/s1600/Eur+scorers+table+5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="197" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXn8ygsCOlQILVx-18SNkdHbUYdWLEc7r-jpKqOybjj0Kloks8-2jzFoqIqy3xzdEr2lUG7WceN_Ud_ECKzcaxgrCEP-eTx0ljwfdrQXX2BcwiKohPl7yC1xTEuIHGWeL8i956Ux7n9nue/s320/Eur+scorers+table+5.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Tabel 5. Importance ranking: Avg. of virtual and eventual incremental points won by team because of top scorer's goals</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Observation
7: Lewandowski and Benzema have not only been putting in lots of goals, but
also goals that led their respective teams to win more points, notably as
opposed to Cristiano Ronaldo whose eight goals so far amounted to a total one-point
importance only, according to the measure’s definition.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Observation
8: Ighalo’s ranking as Europe’s joint second team scorer in terms of most
important goals for his club demonstrates that his topping the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">relative efficacy</i> ranking is not just an
oddity, but rather demonstrative of something highly meaningful.</span><br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhz4v0C8ULoA6Y1tk1WJnH8yissx2Ml6c0aXmGn45L8zi0FKsYXPNcSkhT0nlwMA7rGljrLpQGiHbS2vMDR3mr95PgCtHrX_a7x0Lfm7MnjyEKthpqZqotaJEHEANP3_HwJRTcAYoTYWN7P/s1600/4426.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="192" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhz4v0C8ULoA6Y1tk1WJnH8yissx2Ml6c0aXmGn45L8zi0FKsYXPNcSkhT0nlwMA7rGljrLpQGiHbS2vMDR3mr95PgCtHrX_a7x0Lfm7MnjyEKthpqZqotaJEHEANP3_HwJRTcAYoTYWN7P/s320/4426.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: theguardian.com</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><u>Concluding
observations from the multi-measure analysis:</u><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Observation
9: Robert Lewandowski is clearly on fire: not only is he currently Europe’s most
effective as well as efficient scorer, but also is he the scorer whose goals so
far delivered most points to his team.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Observation
10: Some scorers who so far have been instrumental to their team’s successes,
e.g. Griezmann and Ighalo, in a simple ranking
of goals scored, would remain largely unnoticed, whereas the impact of others' goals, e.g. Cristiano Ronaldo's, may be overstated.</span><br />
<br />
Observation
11: It is not any single measure, but the combination of several which results
in a much deeper and nuanced insight into the meaning of the game’s top
scorers.</div>
tompvhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07038797867793544042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2516315811350613646.post-64707792554168864212015-08-31T17:32:00.001+02:002015-09-02T09:12:40.373+02:00Money and Football: Big Spenders Take All?<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">It’s
Transfer Deadline: D-Day for many managers and club Presidents across Europe to scramble together their winning team for the months to come. One of the main insights stemming
from a “soccernomics” approach is that transfer-fee spending does not lead to
positive results on the pitch, but that wage spending does. This relationship was
proposed some years ago by sports economist Stefan Szymanski and sports journalist Simon Kuper
in their bestseller <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Soccernomics</i> and,
meanwhile, has influenced some of the most powerful people on the business side
of sports, such as Ferran Soriano, CEO of the highest-spending sports club
worldwide, Manchester City, as evidenced in his book <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Goal: The Ball Doesn’t Go In by Chance</i>. In an earlier post, I
pointed out that a causal relationship going from wage spending to success is
very unlikely to exist. Interestingly, in his new book <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Money and Football: A Soccernomics Guide</i>, Professor Szymanski
formally reiterates his stands on the matter, although he actually gives away that it is wrong... I’ll explain very succinctly.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Prof.
Szymanski states that there is a very high correlation between wage spending
of football clubs and their league position. He now acknowledges that
correlation (i.e. two things occurring at the same time) does not automatically
imply causation (i.e. one causing the other). However, he points out that, “now
there are some statistical tests that one can implement in order to get a
better idea about whether a relationship is causal. Some (but) not all of these studies support the view that causation
runs from wage spending to league success” – without any indication of what
“some (but) not all” concretely means (e.g. two out of ten?, nine out of
ten?; which ones yes and which ones no?) He further mentions – and here I
certainly do follow – that, “it’s also important to have a theoretical
model in mind" and he goes on by suggesting that, "it’s very hard to develop an argument to explain the data
that does not entail causality from wages to performance.” Don’t mind if I at
least gave it a try:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Wage and
talent, or quality, of a player tend to be very highly correlated – including for reasons
mentioned by Prof. Szymanski, i.e. that players are operating in a competitive
market, with lots of information being available on players and their
performance. As a result, a team made up of highly-paid players often reaps
success. But the causal driver is the talent, not the wage. In other words, if
a same quality player would earn less (within reasonable bounds), performance
would be very likely to be the same. For example, do we really expect Kevin De
Bruyne to start playing so much better even now than last season just because his wage
just nearly doubled? Ridiculous. The driver of – player and team – performance is the quality of
the player(s). The wage a player earns is an indicator of that quality, but it
does not drive that quality.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><br /></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiX7CQNPfhyphenhyphenTxPTZnKI_1QNEsdTqAdn69YUWSddzoroGo2NgLd556pfFn7_bojQpWTR9xAkA7R4wN9G_oWty5aYhD86AAhV_HiENS8n2g3rFB6AwGsKS23bWBx04sabJKGAd8WZ93DfGBel/s1600/Reverse+shirt+shot.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="223" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiX7CQNPfhyphenhyphenTxPTZnKI_1QNEsdTqAdn69YUWSddzoroGo2NgLd556pfFn7_bojQpWTR9xAkA7R4wN9G_oWty5aYhD86AAhV_HiENS8n2g3rFB6AwGsKS23bWBx04sabJKGAd8WZ93DfGBel/s400/Reverse+shirt+shot.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: mcfc.co.uk</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Prof. Szymanski
actually confirms exactly that with his “revised formulation” of the pay–performance relationship in his new book. He mentions that money is the key to success,
not because by paying donkeys very high wages you will become successful, but
because a big checkbook gives you access to superstars (i.e. very high-quality
players). It doesn't take a PhD to realize that, if you put two and two
together, what this in fact means is that quality, or talent, not wage, drives success.
And that quality or talent tends to be highly correlated with wages, due to
supply and demand dynamics of the market for players. Prof. Szymanski actually concludes that his "pay-performance line works because there is a market–...the market prices the relationship...between <i>talent </i>and success"! (emphasis added)</span><br />
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">For those who love statistics, my conjecture corresponds to a strong suspicion that Prof. Szymanski's results demonstrate what is known in the jargon as omitted-variable bias. According to Wikipedia, "i</span>n statistics, omitted-variable bias occurs when a model is created which incorrectly leaves out one or more
important causal factors. The "bias" is created when the model
compensates for the missing factor by over- or underestimating the effect of
one of the other factors." Leaving out an actual variable for talent, or quality, while including a variable that is highly correlated with quality (such as wage) may thus lead to showing a very strong direct relationship between wage and success - but only because talent as such has erroneously been omitted. A look at the original 2002 <i>Journal of Sports Economics </i>paper by Hall, Szymanski and Zimbalist confirms omission of a talent variable in both the regressions and the causality tests.<br />
<br />
The main
lesson for sports managers out there? Look out for talent, not just to spend
your money! Something the likes of Swansea’s Garry Monk realized quite some
time ago – partly out of necessity – and something Louis van Gaal still doesn’t
– partly for lack thereof. Fortunately for mad King Louis, he seems blessed
with Maecenases who don’t seem to either.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><br /></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtu7PJgC7nvuWAKfuMxzoNzPoBUVKzH4voQh908F6rhx0HprFk90_4EfYjWJZHfhjkgI0zus3zTTtXsMiVv1nsuDxxORAw7wP79q-ER4glLPv-mMS8d_3iYjc2jxJq-c4Ya0heVyPgB0n6/s1600/Swansea+vs+Man+u.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="283" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtu7PJgC7nvuWAKfuMxzoNzPoBUVKzH4voQh908F6rhx0HprFk90_4EfYjWJZHfhjkgI0zus3zTTtXsMiVv1nsuDxxORAw7wP79q-ER4glLPv-mMS8d_3iYjc2jxJq-c4Ya0heVyPgB0n6/s400/Swansea+vs+Man+u.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: BBC's Match of the Day (30/08/15)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><br /></span></div>
tompvhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07038797867793544042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2516315811350613646.post-71725013671459912672015-07-31T12:02:00.004+02:002015-08-29T09:34:14.671+02:00How Barça’s Treble Will Change the History of Football Tactics<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<!--StartFragment-->
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Before
turning the page on the 2014/2015 season, let’s have a look at the learning and
implications for football tactics of Barça’s treble. At least as significant as
the move away from <i>tiki-taka</i> is the
adoption of a three-forward format, Barça’s so-called trident (with both moves
obviously not being unrelated). In this post, I seek to highlight why, from an
evolutionary perspective, the importance of FC Barcelona having managed to win
everything with such a system can hardly be overestimated.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaOOhf1BliP1jcPw5p2ZeIxe0FQj9wHNm8n7eUMW_pnEzzK2n1tWZ1QdXx54BwIT2NmQUo6eM-2uRhcsMQjEWvbmIRszxexjunQotfJWblY_KglVMGTIMC-9bfSI5NMZUH5-skijVJjvFu/s1600/barcelon-fc-L.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaOOhf1BliP1jcPw5p2ZeIxe0FQj9wHNm8n7eUMW_pnEzzK2n1tWZ1QdXx54BwIT2NmQUo6eM-2uRhcsMQjEWvbmIRszxexjunQotfJWblY_KglVMGTIMC-9bfSI5NMZUH5-skijVJjvFu/s320/barcelon-fc-L.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: financialexpress.com</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">In what is
widely considered the most authoritative book on the history of football
formations, in <i>Inverting the Pyramid</i>, Jonathan Wilson brilliantly describes
the history of formations as a process in which the pyramid became inverted,
i.e. a move from an all-out attacking 2-3-5 in the game's early days to a much more
cautious sole-striker formation. In particular following FC Barcelona’s <i>tiki-taka</i> success under Guardiola and
Spain’s victory at Euro 2012, some observers as well as coaches, notably Carlos
Alberto Parreira, prophesied the winning formation of the future even to be the
4-6-0 – perhaps a final evolutionary step.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Did Luis
Enrique, with his trident, then defy the laws of football tactics’
<i>natural</i> evolution? The answer is no.
In an attempt to make sense of their environment, people naturally tend to look
for patterns and cause-and-effect relationships, also where none exist. As
football is a social undertaking, made by men’s thinking and acting, there
is no “natural" evolution of which the future can easily be predicted or
inferred from what came before. Most analysis is thus ex-post sense-making and assuming
current tendencies will amplify in the future. Matthew Whitehouse’s recent
book <i>Universality: The Blueprint for Soccer’s New Era</i> reads as a prime example
hereof: enlightening in explaining the past; very unlikely to have any
predictive power. Luis Enrique did not escape from any inevitable
evolutionary path but, rather, realized that – as in any human endeavor – there
was an active choice to be made.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">For
signs of just how powerful and self-fulfilling a formation’s success can be, we
need not look far: with Cristiano Ronaldo, Bale and Benzema, Real Madrid have a trident of their own. Furthermore, the most promising formation for Atlético, notorious
for their defensive pressing through a 4-4-2, in the upcoming season,
seems to combine Jackson Martínez (center), Griezmann and Ferreira Carrasco
(both wide) – and it probably won’t take Simeone long to figure out just that.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgl2xltL_wZ2oavFEcnHs-kEwqE5x3oAaEyn4A1PV4Z6BnQ3VWlYDODlnVfM6V45z1E3_sRLu_-_GQsfRuzmPfH2vvLhgFQWyBSVwlmRH0oIj8tocrL-PoE9rMLuZmL4d_yQw4PVbll_GA/s1600/BBC1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="159" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgl2xltL_wZ2oavFEcnHs-kEwqE5x3oAaEyn4A1PV4Z6BnQ3VWlYDODlnVfM6V45z1E3_sRLu_-_GQsfRuzmPfH2vvLhgFQWyBSVwlmRH0oIj8tocrL-PoE9rMLuZmL4d_yQw4PVbll_GA/s320/BBC1.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: laacib.net</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">So, apart
from there not being any pre-defined, inescapable evolution in football
formations, what is the take-away of Barça’s treble this time? Get three
excellent forwards and success will take care of itself? Not quite.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<ol>
<li><span lang="EN-US" style="text-indent: -18pt;">There’s
no one formation that beats the others (which is obviously not the same as
saying that all formations are equally good or that formations don’t matter). A
team’s best formation depends on the players you have at your disposal. In case
you don’t have three – relative – star attackers, there’s as little point in
playing with a </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'MS 明朝'; text-indent: -18pt;">“</span><span lang="EN-US" style="text-indent: -18pt;">trident</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'MS 明朝'; text-indent: -18pt;">”</span><span lang="EN-US" style="text-indent: -18pt;"> as there is in not fielding all three when you have got them.</span></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">Provided
you have the quality forwards, attacking in numbers can be very effective,
especially when playing against a team with a non-adaptive system that does not
account for facing numerous attackers. Belgium – Argentina, to which
I dedicated the first post in this blog, being a case in point. As much as
people like to analyze and philosophize about the beautiful game, you get three
points only when you score more goals than the opponent, so scoring goals is a
prerequisite to winning.</span></li>
</ol>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Whether the
“trident” will take the rest of Europe by storm remains to be seen. What already seems certain is that Barça’s recent treble success on the back of its trident
has silenced prophesies of there being no more room for strikers in the
football of the future. We may now also better understand why it makes little
sense to believe in some kind of determinism when it comes to the future of football tactics. In Whitehouse’s words, <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i><span lang="EN-US">Football’s future will be defined thanks to the
visionaries and risk takers who seek to try new things and experiment with the
game. This is how anything evolves, change through trial and error.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<!--EndFragment-->tompvhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07038797867793544042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2516315811350613646.post-55574798132980541872015-06-24T12:47:00.000+02:002017-09-26T09:57:04.954+02:00Copa América: An Unfair Tournament by Design?<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Much of
Latin America is currently in the grips of the Copa América, a very exciting
tournament indeed. Yet I take great issue with two aspects relating to its
format. As I will explain, the tournament’s particular format makes that some
countries are awarded an unfair advantage relative to others, just because of
the group they were drawn into and/or the timing of their games.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhk2_xC9UhWwl7l0qfHbTO7XKohektdDSBOcxC_Z5_PzyatbUfCzjd89Ien_ij0v6jwK4jEz3qcEkilieol6INu0oszgUd-K_04i4bz3_vU0Gc7WcjxubTJuqyH6rH-U5FdrMNjbcAkEzU-/s1600/vogels.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhk2_xC9UhWwl7l0qfHbTO7XKohektdDSBOcxC_Z5_PzyatbUfCzjd89Ien_ij0v6jwK4jEz3qcEkilieol6INu0oszgUd-K_04i4bz3_vU0Gc7WcjxubTJuqyH6rH-U5FdrMNjbcAkEzU-/s400/vogels.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: quepasa.cl</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The first
issue is a straightforward one. In all major tournaments (e.g. FIFA World Cup)
as well as national leagues, the final games in the group stage of any particular
group or league are scheduled <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">at the same
time. </i><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The purpose is</span> that no team has an undeserved advantage of knowing what its
competitors did and thus of being able to know what result it would need – whereas
the competitors who had to play before didn’t. </span><br />
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><br /></span>A real-life
instance that made the involved unfairness all too obvious in practice and which is part of our
collective football memory occurred at the 1982 FIFA World Cup. Both
West Germany and Austria were to proceed to the next round if, in their final group game, West Germany were to beat Austria 1-0. After ten minutes, the West Germans scored and both teams ran down the clock for the
remaining eighty. The <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Disgrace of Gijón</i> incited FIFA, in future world cups, to have the final games of each
group scheduled at the same time. At the Copa América, anno 2015, CONMEBOL still seems content awarding half of the teams the
potential advantage of knowing what result they will need from their final
group game.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The first
issue can very easily be fixed. This is quite different for the second, which
is more structural and relates to the two (out of three) “best thirds” qualifying.
Naturally, this implies that what happens in other groups also affects what
happens in any given group. Again, the teams that will play later will have the
advantage of superior information about the result they need: at the time of the
final games of group A, the final games in groups B and C are still left to be
played, implying uncertainty of outcome, whereas at the time of the final games
in group C, the final ranking of groups B and C is already known. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">So the
teams in later groups <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">know </i>better
what result they need to progress. But does this actually <i>affect</i> how likely they are to get it? For those who prefer
numbers over reason, let’s have a look at the nine editions of the Copa
América where the current “best-thirds” rule was used (i.e. since 1993) and see
if there’s any differences. In case better information does not affect who
progresses, we would expect, on average, to see three times the best third of
each group not to have made it through. The actual results, however, show the following:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzuSILY0vP1_w3qQ8qCQhhJEZZ6VUKZbp4W3SfJsGyr-F6sIZE_YOfJrzB3-kVQniJqmJ8fV2qCZtRvYYaYWAx732GUx2FL95oi7wMCvlGzOT7Xx-cz0WPfjvCNHg5c0_wzqxRJGAyZ4PT/s1600/Untitled+2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzuSILY0vP1_w3qQ8qCQhhJEZZ6VUKZbp4W3SfJsGyr-F6sIZE_YOfJrzB3-kVQniJqmJ8fV2qCZtRvYYaYWAx732GUx2FL95oi7wMCvlGzOT7Xx-cz0WPfjvCNHg5c0_wzqxRJGAyZ4PT/s400/Untitled+2.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Each bar indicates for the respective groups how many (on Y-axis) out of nine times the<br />
third of that group did not progress to the knock-out stage, due to being the "worst third"</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">In six out
of nine editions, it was the third of group A which happened to be the worst
third and thus the one not to progress. Interestingly, also, the one time the
third of group C did not manage to qualify, in 2007, this was a
mathematical certainty already ahead of the last matchday of group C.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">So now that we are clear on what the problem is, how do we solve it? By
making sure that the same number of teams from each group is to progress, so
that what happens in one group does not affect how many are to progress
in another (alternatively, the final games of <i>all</i> the groups could be scheduled at the same time, but this can be considered too much of a drawback for TV audiences). Let’s assume that Copa América wants to hold on to twelve countries playing
the group stage and eight progressing, to the quarters. We could have four groups of
three, with the two best of each group making it through. Downside here would be
that the number of teams per group is uneven, so that in each group one team would be free on the last match day and thus continues to have more complete information.
The solution would be to make two groups of six, with the best four of each
group qualifying for the next stage. The first of group A would then play the
fourth of group B and vice versa and the second of group A against the third of
group B and vice versa. The teams that would make it to the final will have
competed in eight games, one more than in the case of the World Cup. If this
is considered too many, one could immediately move from the group stage to the
semis instead, with only the top two qualifying, which would make even more
sense. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
Is the
problem of an undesirable format confined to the Copa América and CONMEBOL? Interestingly, UEFA
has decided to import a similar system for the Euro Cup, starting from next year’s edition, when the number of teams participating will increase with a staggering
50%. In light of the above, it is curious that a federation that is becoming
adamant about creating a level playing field through Financial Fair Play, more
or less at the same time decides to start assigning arbitrary (dis)advantages to
some of the teams competing in its main tournament, i.e. with now “best thirds”
qualifying; with some group winners meeting teams that became second, others that
ended up third; some teams that were second meeting group winners and others
other seconds. Again, the solution may be simple: four groups of six teams, with
either only the winner or the best two of each group progressing to the
knock-out stage. That’s what I would call fair play.</div>
tompvhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07038797867793544042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2516315811350613646.post-394703198590565672015-05-26T12:08:00.002+02:002015-09-29T13:04:14.343+02:00Which Premier League Top Scorer Would You Like in Your Team?<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">As national
leagues across Europe draw to a close, it is a favoured time to produce lists
of top scorers. With the Premiership being the toughest and most advanced
domestic league - as José Mourinho likes to remind his colleagues -
the top scorers of this competition are of particular attention. Sergio Agüero
inherits the golden boot from Luis Suárez, having scored 26 goals, 5 more than
first contender and season revelation Harry Kane. Premiership debutants Diego Costa (20), Charlie Austin (18) and Alexis Sánchez
(16) complete the top 5.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBuEH6Qsx3HOjkkd2k5bVY5-rHMf_zEC_Gj3QbFFTU1xhsM-UGUAuv8DRYgsGzmrarJ-ni7Sxy6i-9NgjXPKujUbY0OW7YnzYV1YuWAAkgxYGzD_qpM08oSXANjZm9TRbEj7EHYxY4ygJJ/s1600/Aguero+2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="197" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBuEH6Qsx3HOjkkd2k5bVY5-rHMf_zEC_Gj3QbFFTU1xhsM-UGUAuv8DRYgsGzmrarJ-ni7Sxy6i-9NgjXPKujUbY0OW7YnzYV1YuWAAkgxYGzD_qpM08oSXANjZm9TRbEj7EHYxY4ygJJ/s320/Aguero+2.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: dailymail.co.uk</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">But do these
single scores tell us all we need to know? For instance, how do Agüero’s 26
goals for vice-champion Man. City compare to the 18 Charlie Austin managed to
put in for bottom-of-the-table and relegated QPR? Impossible to say? Let’s give
it our best shot! In this post, I will argue that if we are to choose the most <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">useful</i> top scorer based on a single
number, the simple count measure, by which penalties count as much as field
goals, calls for an adjustment. Furthermore, while people like to take
single-number mental shortcuts, considering several informative “stats” in
conjunction is likely to yield a much more accurate and nuanced view of top
scorers’ relative performances and utility to their teams. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Why is an
adjustment in light of penalties due? First and foremost, whereas scoring a
field goal tends to involve a <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">unique </i>skill,
in the case of a penalty, the reduction of a team’s conversion rate by having
the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">second </i>best kicker shoot the team’s
penalties tends to be negligible. Having Yaya Touré
as designated penalty shooter instead of Agüero is highly unlikely to make a
real difference for Man. City, for instance. Second, while a field goal requires finishing as
well as positioning/preparation, a penalty only involves the finishing aspect.
Third, it is not uncommon for a team to "award" its best scorer and/or striker with the task of taking the spot kicks exactly to provide him with the
chance to up his goal tally. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">An accurate <i>efficacy</i> measure for scorers, so I argue, ought to take into account the above qualifying features of scoring penalties. At the same time, however, spot kicks tend to
involve enhanced pressure as – in contrast to most field situations – the
“norm” is for the player to score. To reflect the above particularity,
then, I propose for a penalty to count half of a field goal. This year's top 5
rank would remain unchanged, though the differences become smaller – e.g. as Agüero scored 5 times from the spot kick, whereas Sánchez none.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">While
efficacy is key, <i>efficiency</i>, i.e. one’s output (i.e. goals) compared to input
(i.e. time played) is also crucial. For instance, say one striker scores 20
goals over the 38 league games, playing all of them, and another striker
totals 20 goals appearing in only 20 games. The latter is obviously
preferable, i.e. more efficient, as he needed less playing time to score the
same number of goals. This implies one could be fielding someone else in the 18
remaining games, who may again score goals. Efficiency measures come with a
note of caution, though: the numbers involved have to be large enough so as not
to be sensitive to small changes. In case of the Premiership
top scorers, however, all scored more than 15 goals and were fielded over 2,000 minutes, implying the efficiency
stat <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">is</i> meaningful.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The
efficiency ranking, i.e. the adjusted goals (efficacy) divided by the number of
minutes played over the season, multiplied by 90, leads to the following
ranking of average number of penalty-adjusted goals scored per game:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuXkBsHknlsU8AQqcXFudpsLJF-BpgkbsdkpdlUjzd1xkKIBhG04VZupmEG21lQ-npoMetJYzNxOuVnG3bh3DSujofY2lUIfc00B7ivFevuK96dMrGiI4qzr7Him8VSS2fCk66YqYIHLYr/s1600/Slide1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuXkBsHknlsU8AQqcXFudpsLJF-BpgkbsdkpdlUjzd1xkKIBhG04VZupmEG21lQ-npoMetJYzNxOuVnG3bh3DSujofY2lUIfc00B7ivFevuK96dMrGiI4qzr7Him8VSS2fCk66YqYIHLYr/s320/Slide1.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Adjusted goals/90 mins represents the number of goals scored on average during 90 minutes<br />
given the player's actual scoring rate when fielded (with converted penalties counting for half)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The efficiency numbers show important additional information: when playing, Diego Costa was
the highest scorer of the lot – the difference with Agüero being less
than meaningful. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><br /></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjU6c0D0fgp_8vhGrw6XblHiLNe_Hg0eCdhCzf_GpBDjIAWtBmyfDdaNV4vbpgDyEf0S7EwhuQhn3gHE4G9YDkn6CENuJxTf_W5iIXOv1LbIUXvscOngN94TNu81e1P7dzCB8Fqxajtljdi/s1600/Diego+Costa+dailystar.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjU6c0D0fgp_8vhGrw6XblHiLNe_Hg0eCdhCzf_GpBDjIAWtBmyfDdaNV4vbpgDyEf0S7EwhuQhn3gHE4G9YDkn6CENuJxTf_W5iIXOv1LbIUXvscOngN94TNu81e1P7dzCB8Fqxajtljdi/s320/Diego+Costa+dailystar.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: dailystar.co.uk</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
But perhaps a lot of the credit should go to Chelsea and Man. City, respectively, for being the two highest scoring teams in the league? To see how these top scorers performed relative to their teammates, let’s indeed look at their <i>relative efficacy</i>, i.e. the number of adjusted goals they scored relative to the number of adjusted goals scored by their team overall. Charlie Austin then turns out to be the undisputed champion, scoring 41% of QPR’s adjusted goals, followed by Kane with 35% of Spurs’ and Agüero with 30% of the Citizens’.<br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Do efficacy
and efficiency capture everything we’d like to know about our top scorers? The
answer is "no" as scoring essentially is a means to the end goal of the
team winning points. So we also want to know how many points these players’
goals actually won for their team, i.e. valuing the goals they scored by their <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">importance</i>. To measure
importance, I propose a measure that is the average of two numbers: the first
is the increment in the number of virtual points resulting from the goal. For
instance, if you score the 1-0, your team’s virtual points from the game go
from 1 to 3, so +2 as a direct result of the goal. The second number is the end-of-game increment in
points resulting from a player’s goal(s). For instance, if you scored the 1-0 and
the game finishes in 2-2, then, without your goal, your team would have had 0
points instead of 1, so the increment is 1. The overall <i>importance</i> of such a goal would thus be (2+1)/2 = 1.5. The maximum
number of points a player can contribute in a single game is limited to 3 and
penalties again count as half a field goal.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The beauty
of this importance measure is twofold: First, it relates goals to points, which is what
matters in the end, e.g. if you score 5 goals, it makes a big difference for your
team whether you scored all in a 5-0 victory or, instead, put your team up 1-0
on five different occasions. Second, both being part of a successful (e.g.
Chelsea) and a less successful (e.g. QPR) team has its advantages and
disadvantages, allowing for a more levelled comparison of players’ individual
contributions, irrespective of the quality of their team: as part of an unsuccessful team, it is harder to put in the
goals, but when you do, it is more likely to be one that matters. The
importance measure yields a clear “winner”:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbbDyH1ZAnalzDSKxVpHHU1Se5oyvbtf6ngdyWy3v5hDqAsFwZncgiaGYxw0iV41IfzNjetL0KTvXTLAT5kBWc8-AlVGc7CdkjvMYMBo1TbzElOaoXumsbonYADbVtWL0r8VGXC27nyZBj/s1600/slide+2+adjusted.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="255" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbbDyH1ZAnalzDSKxVpHHU1Se5oyvbtf6ngdyWy3v5hDqAsFwZncgiaGYxw0iV41IfzNjetL0KTvXTLAT5kBWc8-AlVGc7CdkjvMYMBo1TbzElOaoXumsbonYADbVtWL0r8VGXC27nyZBj/s400/slide+2+adjusted.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Note that efficacy is expressed as number of goals;<br />
importance as number of points won (both on Y-axis)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Harry
Kane’s goals won Tottenham Hotspur a clean 24 points, no less than 7 more than did
Aguëro’s goals for City. The goals of Diego Costa, our most efficient player,
turn out not to have resulted in that many additional points for Chelsea: out
of the 16 games he got himself on the score sheet, in 8 of those his goal(s)
made a difference of less than a point. The average point contribution of Kane’s goals is 1.2, nearly double that of Diego Costa’s. After re-scaling the
importance measure to account for time played - meaning allowing all top scorers as many minutes as the one who collected most, viz. Austin - Diego Costa jumps Austin
and Sánchez, but Kane remains far ahead of both Diego Costa and Agüero: the PFA's Young Player of the Year's goals then yield 28.5 points; Agüero’s 20 and Diego Costa’s 18.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Will those
who scored more/less important goals repeat this again next year? That,
luckily, is impossible to predict. We'll have to tune in again to the
Premier League next season!</span><br />
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Who would
you choose for your team if you could only pick one? </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Wingdings; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-char-type: symbol; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-symbol-font-family: Wingdings;"><span style="mso-char-type: symbol; mso-symbol-font-family: Wingdings;">J</span></span></div>
tompvhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07038797867793544042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2516315811350613646.post-74403509753268703342015-04-30T15:55:00.002+02:002017-02-09T09:05:40.213+01:00Xavi and Gerrard: 500 Games Each, But Worlds Apart?<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">It was
almost 399 years after the day both Shakespeare and Cervantes passed away when Steven Gerrard and Xavi Hernández both played their 500<sup>th</sup> league
game for their respective clubs. As for these writers, although contemporaries,
both players have quite distinct styles. It is not just that they are
different. Gerrard is a ‘box-to-box’ player, said to be a protagonist of a game of times passed, whereas Xavi, the technical virtuoso, typifies a more modern game. In light of their distinct styles, many
may appreciate linking Xavi to a literary genius; fewer in the case of <i>Stevie G</i>. In this post, I present a personal comparison of both jubilee
celebrators and explain that a main reason why Gerrard is considered the ugly
duckling of the two may be due to a matter of - bad - timing.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><br /></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7TAM1OpAPWntbqs-gMiI6a2G996_uhFzHSEfa75zeWOQt1OmgRGLRo0SdU0ZDJItuq5WmjXp2bS02MIcB-SeIK6AW7XzrUpraguV03fy5sDRn45eYPpM4FSk8L3KxFTT26gmg1B9zeR51/s1600/xavi-gerrard-han-visto-las-caras-varias-veces-europa-1429979841917.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7TAM1OpAPWntbqs-gMiI6a2G996_uhFzHSEfa75zeWOQt1OmgRGLRo0SdU0ZDJItuq5WmjXp2bS02MIcB-SeIK6AW7XzrUpraguV03fy5sDRn45eYPpM4FSk8L3KxFTT26gmg1B9zeR51/s1600/xavi-gerrard-han-visto-las-caras-varias-veces-europa-1429979841917.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: sport.es</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">In his
excellent book on football tactics, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Universality:
The Blueprint for Soccer’s New Era</i>, Matthew Whitehouse speaks of Gerrard in terms of “the classic midfielder of the late 1990’s”, which faded
away with the advent of the 2000’s. Xavi, on the other hand, is labelled “a
technician, ideally suited to the contemporary game and its needs” and “the
best midfielder of his generation”. These views also seem reflected in the way
both clubs are currently treating their veterans: whereas Barça President
Bartomeu told Xavi he has earned himself the right to decide whether and how long to remain at the club, Gerrard was made to understand it was time for him
to leave Liverpool FC. Xavi’s place in football stardom is definitely well
deserved. But is Gerrard’s in the periphery really granted? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Both Xavi and Gerrard started their club careers at the end of the previous millennium
and, since, have turned into icons of their respective clubs. The
highlight in both players’ club careers has been winning a Champions League and receiving the man-of-the match award for their individual
performance in the final. Both respective games could hardly have been more
telling of both protagonists. In 2005, Gerrard saw his team 3-0 behind
at half time in the CL final against AC Milan. After scoring the 3-1 with a rare, thumping header, the captain windmilled his arms, urging the Reds’ fans this one
wasn’t over till it was over. The rest went into history as the 'miracle of
Istanbul' and ended with Gerrard lifting the trophy. Four years later, FC Barcelona
would beat Man. U. 2-0, with Xavi demonstrating his sublime skill throughout
the game and presenting Messi the second goal with an inch-perfect assist. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Fighting
spirit vs. a touch of class. In contemporary football the former seems to have
lost its appeal, in favour of the latter. In the case of Gerrard and
Xavi, is it fair to say the latter is really superior, in terms of efficacy? Although
goals and assists, admittedly, only tell a partial story, comparing both
players on this basis seems informative, for two reasons. First, both played 500
league games, a large enough number to rule out most randomness and
coincidence. Second, both are midfielders whose team contribution lies primarily in the build-up of the
attack and setting up goals. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Comparing
both players' vital stats, it can be noted that, in 500 league matches, Gerrard scored 117 goals; Xavi 56. Let’s have Gerrard’s 32 penalty goals count only for
half, adjusting the statistic to 101 goals. Xavi is the king of assists, with
110; Gerrard has 68. That makes a total of 169 goals + assists for Gerrard vs. 166
for Xavi. Moreover, as over the period in which Gerrard and Xavi were active,
the average number of goals in a Premier-League game is 2.64 as compared to
2.68 in a Liga game, a goal/assist in the Premier League seems even slightly
more difficult/decisive. The vital stats, thus, do not seem to bear out the
difference in relative superiority typically perceived in both players. Then why
this perception?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">In addition
to the outspoken differences in success with their respective national teams – only Xavi
was part of a golden generation – a major explanatory factor is that the world
seemed to be ready and waiting for the Xavi-type of player, while it was, at
the same time, tired of and not yet ready for Gerrard. Together with
contemporaries such as Iniesta, Messi and David Silva, Xavi defied the obtain logic
that there was no space at the front stage of world football for small and
frail technicians. Shortly after the “rise of the little man”, as Whitehouse calls it, however, they seemed to dominate world football, through both FC
Barcelona and Spain. General appreciation for the novelty of this type of
player and his flair are evident in the FIFA Ballon d’Ôr’s nominations: Messi
has been on the stage during all five ceremonies, Xavi and Iniesta both twice.
Xavi became one of the billboards of a new type of football – tiki-taka –
featuring an exciting new type of player.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Gerrard is
much less atypical – tall and athletic, with physical prowess, power and endurance
being his key attributes. He was often considered too old-school, not refined enough for the modern
game. Although most popular in the traditional English game, the ‘box-to-box’
player seems much less vital in newly emerging formations, notably the
4-2-3-1. During the 2005/2006 season, then-Liverpool manager Benitez considered Gerrard not tactically disciplined enough to be at the
centre of the field as he “wanted to do everything himself” and preferred to
play his captain wide or as support striker. <i>Stevie G</i> did not let it get to his heart
and scored 23 goals in all competitions that season.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Coaches have been playing the Liverpool skipper in a range of positions:
defensive midfielder, central midfielder, number 10, support striker, winger
and right midfielder. Gerrard's versatility, then, seems to resonate with the
“universal player” of the imminent future, which Whitehouse speaks of, i.e. the
type of player who excels in many different positions and formations, allowing
for fluidity of play and tactics, even in a single game, personified by Philip Lahm. In
this sense, Gerrard probably came to the stage too early. </span><br />
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">In contrast, Xavi,
who played in just one position, viz. central midfield, made his career at the
same time that the type of football he was playing flourished, a
possession-based type of play summed up by Xavi's statement that "if you are not going to pass the ball then why play the game?", which, today, not even Barça or Guardiola’s Bayern are
attempting to perform anymore. Obviously, Xavi was not just <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">lucky </i>with this; he contributed to the success of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">his </i>type of football. For Gerrard, it
has always rather been an uphill battle: too late as a ‘box-to-box’; a
universal type of player <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">avant-la-lettre</i>.
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
In spite of this,
comparing their vital league stats at their respective clubs, Gerrard does not seem to
have to shy away from Xavi’s. But, as Xavi accurately notes, “in football, the
result is an imposter.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There’s something
greater than the result, more lasting – a legacy”. And to leave a legacy, it helps being a child of your time.<br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/uV5xpweO62c/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/uV5xpweO62c?feature=player_embedded" width="320"></iframe></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><br /></span></div>
tompvhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07038797867793544042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2516315811350613646.post-5304903211150012202015-03-11T18:58:00.002+01:002015-03-23T10:33:34.331+01:00Third-Party Ownership for Dummies – So What Is the Problem, Really?<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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UEFA recently started creating a big fuss about
Third-Party Ownership (TPO), depicting it as a major potential threat to professional football. I will explain briefly what TPO is about and
summarize three main reasons why it can indeed be considered hazardous to the
integrity of the game.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u>What is TPO?</u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
Typically, when a player is transferred from one
team (“team A”) to another (“team B”), the acquiring team (B) pays a transfer
fee to the selling team (A), entitling the acquiring team (B) to the “ownership
rights” of the player. Concretely, this means that if team B was to
sell the player again later on, team B, in turn, would be netting a transfer fee
for the player – ideally, one larger than what was previously paid to team A,
so as to make a net profit.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In case of TPO, it is no longer a transaction involving
only - or even mainly - the clubs; rather, an athlete’s “ownership rights” are in the hands of a third-party
owner, which has invested in the athlete under the assumption a substantial amount of future transfer
fees can be generated out of him/her. So in case a player, whose “ownership
rights” are in the hands of a third-party owner (“C”), is being transferred to a team B, the transfer fee
team B is paying will be cashed in by C, with team A being left empty-handed
(assuming, for simplicity, the player is 100% third-party owned).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u>The threats of TPO to the integrity of the game</u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
At first sight, it may seem as if TPO merely implies a
player can cash in earlier on his/her future potential, handing
on the risk to a third party.
At closer inspection, however, the game of football risks to suffer greatly
from TPO, mainly for the following reasons:<br />
</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">1.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>Third-party owner C will receive a return upon
its investment if and only if the player is being transferred. Each time the
player moves teams, C will be passing by the cash register, implying C's goal will be to have the player move teams as often as possible. <br />
</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">2.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span>An even more serious problem concerns “conflict
of interests” as TPO threatens to fundamentally alter the relationship between
an athlete and his/her agent, substantially increasing the power of agents. Let
me illustrate this by means of an example. In a system without TPO, the power,
even of a “superagent” such as Jorge Mendes, largely resides in his/her
network and is thus informal. Ultimately, the agent is hired by the athlete, to take care of
those aspects the athlete would like to entrust the agent with. José Mourinho, for instance, employs Jorge Mendes to take care of Mourinho’s business for him. </div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: -18pt;">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhU-BNrxeZcSmjghCDZNRjhGWXSSAhcrwKA6-fPP8NEx-yz6lm4i-c2N6b508ELOHBohgVACN246E9J6k165BWVKYxohYLAesup8ZYHBuh0pLDggHzEyfeID6W-9gYpQfng-2m6VN67Ovri/s1600/M&M.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhU-BNrxeZcSmjghCDZNRjhGWXSSAhcrwKA6-fPP8NEx-yz6lm4i-c2N6b508ELOHBohgVACN246E9J6k165BWVKYxohYLAesup8ZYHBuh0pLDggHzEyfeID6W-9gYpQfng-2m6VN67Ovri/s1600/M&M.jpg" height="151" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: 101greatgoals.com</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: -18pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle">
A potential – but not yet material –
conflict of interest arises when Mendes is also representing some players
belonging to Mourinho’s team – in this case Chelsea – but not others. After
all, the agent has an interest only in those athletes in his/her “portfolio”.
Mendes, thus, may encourage Mourinho to pay particular attention to those
players when it comes to giving them playing time. </div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle">
The reason why this potential conflict of
interest does not need to materialize is because the agent
is in a subordinate position to the athlete.The athlete can easily hire and fire his/her agent. So Mourinho's interests will be Mendes's; Mendes's interests won't necessarily be Mourinho's. </div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle">
This dynamic between athlete and agent stands to change fundamentally as a result of TPO. In the case of Mourinho, his “ownership rights” are in the hands of a
third-party investor, in which superagent Mendes happens to have a major stake. So no
longer is Mendes merely “hired” by Mourinho, Mendes now actually “owns”
Mourinho, let it be indirectly. Such a structure may make any request by the
agent potentially much more persuasive: Mendes's interests will now also be Mourinho's. In economic terms, TPO thus risks reversing the "principal-agent" relationship: whereas without TPO, Mendes would be Mourinho's agent, with TPO, Mourinho stands to become a pawn in the portfolio owned by Mendes.</div>
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</div>
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</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioH5RSNuxXftiXa2WC7ZCNfkb1aiJP60tuD2x6h7B32mlD7wEx2IR0TNF1cc8lSqSNyWiIngaQZfRls8EKs4ivz794CuBHRs2vmpyaIUSEOxY4PdJF8GAvx1tWvbXcVpETPSqdZkRq_NGo/s1600/TPOv2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioH5RSNuxXftiXa2WC7ZCNfkb1aiJP60tuD2x6h7B32mlD7wEx2IR0TNF1cc8lSqSNyWiIngaQZfRls8EKs4ivz794CuBHRs2vmpyaIUSEOxY4PdJF8GAvx1tWvbXcVpETPSqdZkRq_NGo/s1600/TPOv2.png" height="140" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Mourinho-Mendes relationship in a world without (left) and with (right) TPO</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle">
The fact that
we currently are still living in a world with TPO may not be alien to why, e.g. the
Belgian football press prophesied an even brighter future for Chelsea's Charly
Musonda Jr. as he recently dumped his former agent for…Jorge
Mendes. </div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAG4wHXLRm92L7qkUdHc_kH2wnBU22rBNzX243ujXe26DxH4psRousy9fYov-JlLktYfZsDDJcda8Ee793dtzI2mG7sUQy0LbS5R12lrNavyXDXMI_q00ByAkd-Y_muHDrfWJ7MPARhTPv/s1600/Charly-Musonda-Jr.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAG4wHXLRm92L7qkUdHc_kH2wnBU22rBNzX243ujXe26DxH4psRousy9fYov-JlLktYfZsDDJcda8Ee793dtzI2mG7sUQy0LbS5R12lrNavyXDXMI_q00ByAkd-Y_muHDrfWJ7MPARhTPv/s1600/Charly-Musonda-Jr.jpg" height="192" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: voetbalspot.be</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">3.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>Another real threat posed by TPO again relates
to clubs and coaches losing out control to agents and parties who
are in it for the money. Third-party owners may offer their players to
teams, which normally would not be able to afford the transfer fee, in return
for certain conditions, e.g. that they will always be fielded. In the short term, this essentially implies the manager having to cede team decision-making to business interests.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the longer term, it also exposes the club
to the danger of being substantially weakened as it is to receive no
compensation, i.e. transfer fee, when the “star player” moves on and, thus, without means to find a suitable replacement.<br />
<br />
While not directly related to TPO, the case of (former) Chelsea loanee Thorgan Hazard to Belgian Zulte-Waregem serves to illustrate both mentioned aspects. First, Hazard's entourage negotiated that their <i>poulain</i> would have to be awarded the captain's band, confronting coach Dury with a foregone conclusion and upsetting the dressing room. Second, while, under impulse of Hazard, Zulte-Waregem peaked to become vice-champion, after the golden boot had left - without receiving any compensation - the club quickly found itself fighting relegation (admittedly, other key players had left the club as well). Whereas fans may prefer such peaks and troughs, Zulte-Waregem's stability and balance, arguably, did not seem to have fared well by the Hazard saga.</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast">
Rather than claiming that, say, Mourinho, will
necessarily give in to any demands by his agent, with or without TPO, I have sought to illustrate
how TPO stands to change relative power and the incentive structure involved. While UEFA may have its own
rationale for strongly opposing TPO, my intention has been to summarize the main reasons why, from a long-term perspective of the good of the
game, it's recommendable putting up a fight.</div>
tompvhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07038797867793544042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2516315811350613646.post-16818976933524452932015-02-21T18:15:00.003+01:002015-05-24T07:40:54.191+02:00"Mineirazo": When the Tactical Meet the Coaching Mistakes<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Many of us are yet to fully comprehend Brazil’s 1-7
semi-final elimination against Germany at last summer’s World Cup they hosted. Alternative
explanations are abound, e.g. <a href="http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/news/y=2014/m=12/news=zico-germany-defeat-was-no-accident-2496814.html">Zico's on FIFA's website</a>.
As I am yet to come across a “satisfactory” one, I will share mine.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">As the case for many historic disasters,
in entirely different spheres, I argue that the Mineirazo can be put down to a
combination of tactical failings and inadequate organisational culture. As
football psychology coach Dan Abrahams puts it in his book <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Soccer Brain</i>, “[w]hilst the
odd tactical mistake can happen it is primarily mindset and coaching culture
that…spark[] great games, champagne moments… It is mindset and coaching that
can, conversely, generate poor performances, nightmare matches…”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<u><span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><b>The coaching
mistake</b><o:p></o:p></span></u></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">As I was on the plane
destination Mineirão – an omen perhaps? – for Belgium’s first group game, I was
startled when watching the on-board pre-World Cup reportages featuring interviews
with the Brazilian players. The message of the twenty-something-year olds was
univocal and boiled down to this: ‘Mark our words, people of Brazil, we are
going to make up for the maracanazo, set history right and bring the World Cup
home. We are the chosen generation of players to make this happen.’ </span>This youthful optimism reflected just how eager they were to bring joy to their people. The one
to protect the overenthusiastic youngsters from inviting unreasonable pressure
onto themselves, however, and to canalize
this positivism into a winning mindset, tactical discipline and focus on a
common goal was the coach. As for the coach, as Abrahams puts
it, “Optimism, yes – ignorance, no!”</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">It seemed, though, that Scolari took little decisive action to prevent his youthful team’s optimism turn into
ignorance. This was manifested in two different ways. </span>First, for a coach to cultivate a
winning mindset amongst his players should not be confounded with not having
contingency plans for when things don't go that smoothly. Rather than believing they are too good to fall behind,
players should have the conviction that <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">even</i>
if one or two goals down, they are going to bring this game home and how to make that happen.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">In Abrahams’s words: “The champion…doesn’t allow herself to become engulfed in
emotion as she competes.” If this is what marks the champion, then Brazil
clearly was not one: after conceding a first and second goal against Germany, it was clear
from the players’ collective (non-)reaction they had never given it any serious thought what to do in case this situation would arise. With the third goal came the realization that the World Cup for them was
over and that they were not going to deliver upon their promise. No longer were
they professional football players who would see this game out with minimal
damage, they all just wished they were somewhere else and it seemed most of
them already were.</span><br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj620g1PX9srVdUg2jhs9GoB8bJqvypEqMiN1lsSjy0-KCeWTx6273i8UK0Z1z-NhDpPJEi5jLp3tFEMxLTaKqQdjPwh3NoNF7i_anthrmrmgNylTl7ZTQWrXobI7SphE7M6t_bJLM37Wxj/s1600/David+Luiz.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="185" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj620g1PX9srVdUg2jhs9GoB8bJqvypEqMiN1lsSjy0-KCeWTx6273i8UK0Z1z-NhDpPJEi5jLp3tFEMxLTaKqQdjPwh3NoNF7i_anthrmrmgNylTl7ZTQWrXobI7SphE7M6t_bJLM37Wxj/s1600/David+Luiz.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: lanacion.cl</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Imperatively, there had already been
a clear warning the Seleção were <span style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">not</span> in control of their emotions as players broke into tears <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">before</i>
taking a penalty kick in the shootout concluding their second-round game
against Chile. Following such a clear mental breakdown of players during a game
in which Brazil flirted more than once with elimination, one would expect a psychologically seasoned leader such a Scolari to mentally prepare
his troops for a scenario different from raising the trophy Bellini-style on
July 13<sup>th</sup> – even if only to raise the chances that the latter
actually <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">would </i>happen. And, although
the eventual win against Chile may have put sand into their eyes, after Neymar’s
injury, reality should have kicked in that World Cup victory would not come as a
walk in the park.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Second, it is
important to realize that in a short tournament, as opposed to a league, luck
and elements such as a refereeing decision, an injury or suspension may have a huge
impact. Most favourites appreciate that it
therefore has little sense to claim they are going to win the competition, but rather
that they stand a good chance of getting far in the tournament. Not the Brazilians. They were sure to win, which reflects neither an accurate understanding of the opposition, nor of the
structure of the competition. One can point to the absence of Neymar and Thiago
Silva in their semi-final game, but it is exactly such factors – which are far from
uncommon – that, over a run of a maximum of seven games, can prove decisive and,
again, something for which one ought to have a contingency plan.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<u><span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><b>The (two main) tactical errors</b><o:p></o:p></span></u></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">In all honesty, before
the start, I expected Brazil’s poacher Fred would come out as one
of the tournament's top scorers. After five games, however, his main
“contribution” had been to steal a penalty in the very first game. His nickname
“o Cone” (the cone) may perhaps show too little appreciation for his main role
of permanently attracting defender attention onto himself, thus creating space for
Neymar. </span>Now, with Neymar out
due to injury, however, there was no-one for Fred to attract attention away
from. Rather, he would have to create the danger himself, something he had
shown to be utterly incapable of during the previous games. Still, although
Fred’s role had become obsolete following Neymar’s injury, Felipão surprised by yet
again having a spot for “o Cone” in his starting line-up.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">In addition, fielding
only two centre-backs in combination with very attacking wing-backs implied
little defensive security, especially against an opponent of the likes of the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Nationalmannschaft</i>. The defensive formation was particularly risky considering it was untested and ad hoc, in response to Thiago Silva’s absence. Naturally, the
wing-backs could have realized, at least at some point, they had better provide
more defensive support to their two central-defensive colleagues who were all
too often left drowning.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Is it really fair to
blame the coaches then? After all, we all know how these Brazilians are:
they see a ball and all they can think about is performing a samba-like<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"> jogo bonito</i>. Was such tactical
indiscipline really characteristic, though, of Oscar, Willian, David Luiz and
Ramires under Mourinho; Dante under Guardiola; Hulk under Villas-Boas;
Fernandinho under Pellegrini; Marcelo under Ancelotti; Paulinho under Sherwood;
Thiago Silva and Maxwell under Blanc? These are world class players who, when
playing for their clubs, hardly resemble the headless Brazilian chicken
European romanticists may fantasize about. Oscar, for instance, is considered
to have become one of the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">trequartistas</i>
who works hardest for his team you may find in the game – under Mourinho.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><br /></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidtC85Pn9VhvQ3RRFsRrLfwdbQmG2CJG7gimPqIM1Qwer2Z6aZCg2lM2qOrgdlAGVnLorGxBNQWpt4VaYUVNVWDTWn8Q8XAE1khjB_vCZta7_mfQ49Z8YSAEBo0GXmTjWfdhUf2l1IDVZU/s1600/Oscar.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="237" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidtC85Pn9VhvQ3RRFsRrLfwdbQmG2CJG7gimPqIM1Qwer2Z6aZCg2lM2qOrgdlAGVnLorGxBNQWpt4VaYUVNVWDTWn8Q8XAE1khjB_vCZta7_mfQ49Z8YSAEBo0GXmTjWfdhUf2l1IDVZU/s1600/Oscar.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: dailymail.co.uk</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The combination of
tactical and coaching errors leading to the Mineirazo is all the more
surprising as the CBF had intentionally sought to combine tactical savvy (Parreira) with motivational knowhow (Scolari). Brazil’s
most cardinal sin then perhaps was to categorically cling on to domestic coaches. With the game evolving rapidly, it would indeed appear that opening up
to other ideas is a necessary requirement to stay competitive in the global
arena. A piece of anecdotal evidence may be that an English coach is yet to win
a Premier League title. Another, that Sir Alex Ferguson is believed to
have made his career sustainable in part by having embraced evolutions in mainland
European football by hiring Portuguese Carlos Queiroz as his assistant. Indeed,
it is not so much about the coaches' nationality per se, but, in Abrahams’ terms, about their mindset and coaching culture.</div>
tompvhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07038797867793544042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2516315811350613646.post-51264824045579295902015-01-25T18:54:00.001+01:002015-02-10T17:48:08.951+01:00A Game of Football: Trial of Strength or Mind-Game?<div class="MsoNormal">
In earlier posts, I
took on both Brendan Rodgers and Louis van Gaal; the former for failing to appreciate the psychological aspect of
the game, the latter for getting it quite wrong. Belgian football’s <i>clásico</i> announced itself as a
good test for the importance of the mental element of the game, if any. Steven
Defour was to return to Standard’s Sclessin, the stadium he had left for Porto, back in 2011, with
Anderlecht, Standard's nemesis. The <i>Rouches</i> had made it very clear in the build-up to the game that their former captain would be in for a warm
welcome back. The Belgian international had informed the media he had prepared himself for
the worst and kept it to himself how he would celebrate scoring a
possible goal for his new employer at his former ground.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><br /></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPYyt5_4JcXyagOvRssTRgGP0t8CyB3l1YCX2_UWg6W2rY31vw9LyxQFTdunq_6lUMUmwuwm3F1PU9Mc6vjqgNPYbF5EHVNrajuL5XRk3nOHYXBwqP3-b0xAL5Dy3outgExPmYBDvRUeEL/s1600/Defour.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPYyt5_4JcXyagOvRssTRgGP0t8CyB3l1YCX2_UWg6W2rY31vw9LyxQFTdunq_6lUMUmwuwm3F1PU9Mc6vjqgNPYbF5EHVNrajuL5XRk3nOHYXBwqP3-b0xAL5Dy3outgExPmYBDvRUeEL/s1600/Defour.jpg" height="239" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: voetbalbelgie.be</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Defour was welcomed
into the stadium with an enormous banner<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"> </i>showing
his chopped-off head dangling from his killer’s hand. As in most countries, also
according to Belgian law death threats tend to be considered a serious offense,
but football folklore as well as on-the-pitch proceedings at times appear to be
exempt from the general rules - and more so in the South of the country. How did Defour react? Did he remain stoic under
the “folkloristic” death threat? Was he to score and, if so, would he celebrate?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Top behavioural economist Uri Gneezy, together with Alex Imas, in a recent paper titled <i>Materazzi Effect
and the Strategic Use of Anger in Competitive Interactions</i>, studied the effects
of angering a player in different types of games. They conducted two separate
experiments: one concerned a game of strength; the other a mind-game. In both
cases, the scientists established what the effect would be of a player angering his
opponent. They found that in the case of the game of strength, the angered
opponent was able to put his anger to a productive use, transforming it into <i>more</i>
strength. In the mind-game, in contrast, the provoked player saw this anger
interfere with his judicious decision-making, “losing his cool”, ultimately to the detriment of
his performance. Angering one's opponent in a game of strength, thus, would
be counterproductive, whereas in a mind-game it pays.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In the spirit of
Gneezy and Imas’s study, the Belgian <i>clásico</i> provided an exceptional
testing ground to see whether football is mainly a trial of strength,
or whether the mental aspect may actually dominate - obviously assuming both sides are at a high and comparable skill level. If Defour was to shine, the enmity
against him would seem to have boosted him, in line with the depiction of football as a trial of strength. Should he give in to the acrimony,
that would be anecdotal evidence rather for the football-as-mind-game
conception.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">So what happened?
During the first half, Defour got booked for kicking the ball high and ostentatiously into the stands, after the referee had blown
his whistle for a hand-ball. In the second half, when a Standard player was down and in some need of attention, Defour put the
ball out of play by aiming it fiercely straight into the home crowd - moreover, after the referee had blown his whistle. The referee had no other choice but to book Defour again for an “unforced error” very similar to the one he had committed in
the first half. It took quite some minutes before Defour was actually ready to
leave the pitch.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><br /></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1BCGqNQrLqKgeX9l3qzg5-Q5PHIJ4KZsegs6t9puD2XfWy07MwC4YvyGFXCYerIy6Z8a_1p-NgB7itF-pVagdWSpZh7xmMfXiySM-091dXwhmsocmRWJ_OcVU0U7sxGigtljRqlsHcv0I/s1600/Defour+rood.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1BCGqNQrLqKgeX9l3qzg5-Q5PHIJ4KZsegs6t9puD2XfWy07MwC4YvyGFXCYerIy6Z8a_1p-NgB7itF-pVagdWSpZh7xmMfXiySM-091dXwhmsocmRWJ_OcVU0U7sxGigtljRqlsHcv0I/s1600/Defour+rood.jpg" height="209" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: voetbal24.be</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
From a single-case
study perspective, Defour’s self-inflicted sending off would appear to point to the
provocation having had quite the intended “losing one’s cool” effect rather than none
or even a boosting effect. Recalling Gneezy and Imas’s study, this would be
anecdotal evidence towards football <i>primarily</i>
being a mental battle: “Our results suggest that anger affected performance differently
depending on the game…: anger had a positive effect on performance when the
game involved strength and a negative effect when the game was <i>more</i> mental.” (emphasis added)</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Finally, I would like
to focus on the (potential) role of the coach. Anderlecht’s Besnik
Hasi recently won the award for best manager in the league, after having made Anderlecht
league champion last season, out of an almost lost position. Furthermore, his players,
particularly the younger ones, seem to be most fond of him and to confide in his
ability to make them better. His weakness, however, seems to be his lack of
control on their behaviours, aggravated by an unwillingness or inability to
reprimand them. The former is demonstrated by Anderlecht players
repeatedly having been quarreling with each other on the pitch over who was to take
a penalty or free-kick and eventually the goal-keeping captain having to cross
the field to bring the internal dispute to a conclusion. The latter was evidenced recently when Anderlecht's <i>enfant terrible</i> Mitrovic first shoved in the back and then nastily elbowed an opponent.
When confronted with the unambiguous images after the game, Hasi, puzzlingly,
declared Mitrovic “clearly had not touched his opponent<o:p></o:p></span>”.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Next to the
above-mentioned main effect, scientists Gneezy and Imas also found in their experiments that
“[t]hese behavioral effects were mitigated, however, when individuals had an
opportunity to cool off before competing” – with a cool-down period of a mere ten minutes sufficing in their experiments. The half-time break could then have been a chance for Defour to cool down and avoid getting a second booking. Valuable time also for a coach to bring him to his senses – and, if unable to to so, to protect the player against himself by substituting him. Defour appeared not in control of his emotions also going into the second
half, however, got himself sent off at 0-0 and saw his employer suffer a painful 2-0
defeat.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
As the legendary Rinus
Michels said, “voetbal is oorlog”. Football is war. Those generals who treat
that war as primarily being about physical strength should not be surprised to continue to see their
best men raging ahead toward their own deaths.</div>
tompvhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07038797867793544042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2516315811350613646.post-65938348007013787412015-01-11T15:02:00.000+01:002016-08-16T17:21:37.864+02:00Forever Junior<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhf83851j-_xz2e5Jg328hgwL5yMDIS8H0ihMPajnCSRNHtf4B2_5fBcD34tq_wA-I2MGolFX4Mfhkn4RR4wIHDxe9o2ckg1jn-CDf307aWw0Z5hIqgJKXI8415P7UcFAtH82iDkP3AZl3T/s1600/JM+foto.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhf83851j-_xz2e5Jg328hgwL5yMDIS8H0ihMPajnCSRNHtf4B2_5fBcD34tq_wA-I2MGolFX4Mfhkn4RR4wIHDxe9o2ckg1jn-CDf307aWw0Z5hIqgJKXI8415P7UcFAtH82iDkP3AZl3T/s1600/JM+foto.jpg" width="266" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: standaard.be</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The occasion of this blog's thirteenth post could not have been more unfortunate. The Belgian U21 team has lost its 20-year-old captain. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The November '14 friendly against Norway, in which he scored the fourth and final Belgian goal, will have been Junior Malanda's last for Belgium.<br />
<br /></div>
<div>
Belgian football loses its beating heart for the future. Let us hope it can preserve Junior Malanda's spirit of enjoying the game for the sake of the game.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
</div>
tompvhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07038797867793544042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2516315811350613646.post-66162322707514939902014-12-27T15:58:00.002+01:002018-03-26T09:27:07.377+02:00Attacking in Numbers Is the Best Defense? Against Corners, So It Appears To Be!<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Just before turning the page on the year that saw the long-awaited World Cup in Brazil unfold, I finished Ray Power's </span><i>Soccer Tactics 2014: What The World Cup Taught Us. </i>In spite of its <span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">promise, the book captures little of the actual learning from the tournament. However, it did get the ball rolling on me in relation to how best to defend against a particular set-piece, viz. a corner. As the author mentions,</span><br />
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">“Football is full of variables, unlike many other sports. This unpredictability is a major reason why we love the game. Regardless of tactics, systems, and playing styles, we never truly know what will happen once the ball starts rolling. Set-piece situations reduce the number of variables applicable at that point in the game. Coaches and players can plan and rehearse these restarts more than they can do for any other elements of [the] game. Furthermore, penalty-kicks reduce these variables even further.”<o:p></o:p></i></div>
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<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Including for the above-mentioned reasons, penalties and penalty shootouts are indeed the aspect of football most widely studied, including outside the sports sphere, e.g. in game theory and behavioural economics. Much of the complexity and certainly the dynamism of the game are stripped away here, leaving one kicker and one goalkeeper to face each other in a pre-determined situation, viz. an eleven-meter spot kick.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Corner kicks include considerably more parameters than do penalty kicks. Yet, they are still much less complex and dynamic than any other situation in a football game. Obviously, as compared to regular play. But also relative to free kicks, as one can never be sure where exactly a free kick will arise, if it will. Corner kicks, in contrast, tend to appear at least once – and generally several times – per game both in favour and against any given team. Importantly, they are always taken from the exact same positions, i.e. either one of two corners, and thus are most true to the set-piece synonym of being a “standard situation”.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Where the mentioned book made me think was where it pointed out that decisions relating to how to defend against corner kicks, such as how many players to keep up front, if any, “often depend on the philosophy of the coach”. I have no doubt this is the case. The author seemed to insinuate, however, that there is no one way to do it that is better than another, i.e. that all approaches are equally valid. This kept nagging at me a bit, leading me to elaborate the below proposition that it probably pays to keep (quite) a number of players up front when <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">defending against </i>a corner. Reasons for doing so are the following:</span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<ol>
<li>When you keep/call everyone back, even if you clear the ball, you are sure it will be regained by the opposition (unless the goalkeeper clutches it, or it goes out).</li>
<li>Only if you commit players up field, you have a (real) chance of scoring on the counter-attack (note that keeping a player “up field” does not necessarily mean near the middle line, e.g. France’s positioning of Valbuena and Benzema just outside their own box, with an eye on a potential counter-attack, led to a goal from defending against a corner in their World Cup 2014 game against the Swiss.)</li>
<li>You seem to <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">reduce </i>the opposition’s chances of scoring from the corner as the ratio of defenders over attackers tends to increase the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">more </i>players you keep up front.</li>
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<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">This final point is generally probably least well understood and calls for additional explanation. It hinges on the fact that the opposition will be inclined to keep a player back for each forward you keep up front (typically in addition to one, for safety, i.e. not to potentially be caught out in a “man-against-man” situation). If the defending side keeps no-one up front, (at least) one player of the attacking side tends to stay back when his team takes a corner; two players tend to stay back if one opponent is up front; three players if two opponents are up front, etc. The implications hereof are the following:</span></div>
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<ul>
<li>If you, as the defensive side, keep everyone back, you are ten defenders. The opposition is likely to keep one defender back, plus their goalkeeper. They have one guy taking the corner, leaving eight players potentially in or near the box, involved in the attempt to score from the corner (note that including the taker, who may be involved in case of a short corner, as an attacking forward does not substantially change the below reasoning). This means ten defenders facing eight attackers, i.e. a ratio of 5:4, or 1.2 defenders per attacker.</li>
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<ul>
<li>Now, say, instead, you keep two men up front. The opposition will probably respond by keeping three defenders back. So you have eight field players defending the corner. The opposition are committing three defenders and their goalkeeper to the defence. One guy takes the corner, leaving six players to get involved in the attack. Agreed, there is now comparatively more space for those to move into, facing eight instead of ten defenders, but the ratio of defenders vs. attackers is now 4:3, or 1.33 defenders per attacker. I argue that it is this relative room an attacker has that is decisive, rather than the absolute space.</li>
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If this is all so, why not keep, say, seven men up field? Following the above reasoning, this may induce the opponent to keep eight field players back, leaving just one man in the box, to be guarded by three defenders (leading to a ratio of 3:1, so three defenders for one attacker). It is, however, unlikely that the opposition will see a need to actually keep so many men back. Note that defending with “only” two against<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>two on a possible counter-attack is very risky but, say, five against five, or even six against seven, not that risky. And, as my reasoning of committing players of the defensive team to the attack hinges on keeping the ratio up, it rests on the opposition committing (at least) one defender to each of your players additionally left up field. Also, if they decided to push forward, say all but a couple of their players, facing only three defenders, their chances of scoring from the corner suddenly become very high, meaning that the potential advantage of you having committed men up front will likely not materialise as no counter-attack could be started.</div>
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<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The “optimal” number of players to keep up field thus appears to critically depend on how many defenders the opponent is holding back in response to you keeping more men up front. As long as the opposition are to commit (at least) one defender to each additional player you commit to the counter-attack, it would appear to be the more the better! As football is essentially played against an opposition, the “optimal strategy”, unsurprisingly, appears to depend on the opposition’s behaviour. As I have attempted to show, this should, however, not trick one into believing there is no approach better or worse than another.</span></div>
tompvhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07038797867793544042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2516315811350613646.post-25480597338888984772014-12-14T13:02:00.001+01:002015-10-05T11:05:38.324+02:00Frank Lampard and New York City FC: (No) Way Out of an Arranged Marriage?<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">When Chelsea FC
monument Frank Lampard ended up in the Skyblues kit early this season, under a
City Football Group construction, Chelsea fans did not know where they had it. Not that
they seemed to really hold it against their former captain – they would later applaud
him even after having scored a dramatic late equalizing goal <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">against </i>Chelsea. And they were right not to do so. Irrespective of
one’s achievements and loyalty during one’s career, it seems that the hard laws
of professional football make that at a certain age top clubs will just gently
push their heroes aside, under the form of either a contract extension of very
limited duration or a huge wage reduction – and most typically both.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">This had been the case
of Lampard, who thus decided to embark on the exciting new project of joining Manchester City’s new franchise in the Major League Soccer, New York City
FC. At the new City franchise team, he would be playing aside other designated player David Villa. The expected arrival of both at
the Big Apple was announced more than half a year before the club would start competing. Notwithstanding the fact the squad did not yet
count eleven players, season ticket sales kicked off in earnest, thanks to
figureheads Lampard and Villa. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirRlgCzrc6_8c91fqUBRIBHDtCMdvFQ3bHkPxpeB_NU91ON0yuJRLTTi1SHUKUMB-MZRviZePrzRQBxtxC-9ks4uftiny9NKw9OxDKWt1hr4FBS0s5ajpR6lI7k4kLWSb-tjQtFS_kMdhx/s1600/Lampard.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="237" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirRlgCzrc6_8c91fqUBRIBHDtCMdvFQ3bHkPxpeB_NU91ON0yuJRLTTi1SHUKUMB-MZRviZePrzRQBxtxC-9ks4uftiny9NKw9OxDKWt1hr4FBS0s5ajpR6lI7k4kLWSb-tjQtFS_kMdhx/s1600/Lampard.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: dailymail.co.uk</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">So as to keep both aging stars in good form ahead of the new MLS season commencing, in March 2015, City Football Group assigned Lampard and Villa to its other portfolio teams, Manchester City
and Melbourne City, respectively. While not necessarily always in the starting
line-up, Lampard has shown that he is still of great value to a club of the
stature of the Premier League Champions. To such an extent even that Manuel
Pellegrini is now making it heard he wants to hold on to Lampard, at least
until the end of the season. The Citizens are both rather injury plagued and,
surprisingly, in the end, made it through to the knock-out stages of the
Champions League, only for the second time in their history. Moreover, in the Premier league,
the champions are only 3 points behind leaders Chelsea. Pellegrini thus sees in
the 36-year old, who scored the only goal in last weekend’s league encounter
with Leicester, a “very important player” for his team.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The Chilean does
realize it is not just about what he – or even the player – wants, though.
There is not only another team (New York City FC – although belonging to the
same decision-makers as Manchester City) involved, but also, even much more
critically, the Major League Soccer. It is clear that the MLS granted the City consortium the New York franchise based on the expectation to bring in players of the stature of Lampard
and Villa. Likewise, newly declared fans bought their season tickets based on
the same promise. When you come to the market with a new product, the last
thing you would want to do is disappoint those who have been found willing to give
you a try. To the extent that the City executives are in need of it, the MLS
will surely remind them thereof. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Thus, it may seem unlikely we’ll be seeing Lampard playing his football in Europe much longer.
However, every dissatisfactory solution has its alternative. It just happens to
be that a very similar player to Lampard – in terms of both position and
stature – is being led to the exit by his own Premier-League club. Indeed, Steven Gerrard, who
nearly by himself was able to make the tactical errors of his manager Brendan
Rodgers (see elsewhere on this blog) undone by qualifying the reds in extremis
for the next round of the Champions League, is being forced by Liverpool FC to
seriously reconsider his future at Anfield. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Liverpool FC proposed its 34-year-old captain a much reduced pay, from next season onward – should he decide to stay
with them as a player – and their non-qualification for the Champions-League knock-out stages is unlikely to give them more financial breathing room.
Their worst-case scenario would be to see Gerrard leave for free to a
Premier-league competitor at the end of the season – which is not all that
unlikely, with Stevie G recently having been linked to West Ham U, who are much
more likely even than the Reds to feature in next year's Champions League.
Thus, in case they are not willing and/or able to meet his needs, selling Gerrard off over Christmas – the last time the Reds could still get a
transfer fee for him – to a cash-rich, non-direct competitor (i.e. NYC FC, through City Football Group) may well be their best available alternative. For Gerrard himself, it could well be an exciting new turn in his career and
probably the best way for him to remain an icon at the club where he is most
likely to return as staff member sooner rather than later.</span><br />
<br />
Most importantly, for
the MLS and NYC FC’s newly declared fans, Steven Gerrard may well be
the only worthy and therefore acceptable alternative to Frankie Lampard – which, in turn, could only
drive up the asking price for the Reds vis-á-vis City Football Group. A textbook
example of a win-win solution? Let’s see if those writing the actual script
agree.<br />
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tompvhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07038797867793544042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2516315811350613646.post-42780652729005221342014-11-23T10:38:00.002+01:002015-06-17T10:12:42.393+02:00Number 10<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">At the occasion of
this blog’s tenth post, I propose to take stock of the evolution of some of the
main issues touched upon so far. I am very much aware that <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Strategy of Football</i> is not your average entertainment
blog and that it rather requires attentiveness on the part of the reader. So
as to ensure neither you nor I are wasting our time with mere opinion, let’s
revisit some of the main themes discussed. Although, critically, the blog is
about analysis rather than prediction, from the analyses, often times
predictions – either implicitly or explicitly – naturally flow.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">In the inaugural post,
I challenged Belgian national coach Wilmots’s tactical savvy. Concretely, I disintegrated
the strategy of Belgium in their World Cup quarterfinal against Argentina and
constructed a more promising game-plan from the bottom up. Although, most
unfortunately, it would be impossible to have the game replayed with the proposed tactical plan in place instead, at least now, 3.5 months after the post, (Belgian) people are
slowly waking up to some of the facts underlying my analysis. The most relevant
evolution probably being that recently some of the star players of the national
team (Hazard, De Bruyne, Courtois) openly started questioning Wilmots’ tactics and thereby his tactical capability. Whereas the general public seemed
ready to erect a statue for the national coach after the World Cup, the
euphoria – or, better, ignorance – is gradually making place for the
realisation that we missed a unique chance to write and witness history.
Whereas, still in early October, most Belgians’ heart skipped a beat when it was made public
Wilmots had offers other than continuing his mission with the national team, to most of them it would now seem to come as a relief if Eric Gerets were
announced to be taking over.</span><br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAFBUYpfDWFWnZbMHKm3caCmyJr97Fh0Qra_byvm985hB6dLKx-MnxLd5FQg39sy_gChJ14W5SyAW_ktdEXVT8bG0DXXXTEOGxKteiMON39qNRaD0iJaand_SkbdEtIcojv2J2X3b5Bxas/s1600/hazard.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="229" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAFBUYpfDWFWnZbMHKm3caCmyJr97Fh0Qra_byvm985hB6dLKx-MnxLd5FQg39sy_gChJ14W5SyAW_ktdEXVT8bG0DXXXTEOGxKteiMON39qNRaD0iJaand_SkbdEtIcojv2J2X3b5Bxas/s1600/hazard.jpeg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: nieuwsblad.be</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><br /></span>
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The second post was
published after the second match-day in the Premier League. I explained how
Courtois was bound to win the duel with Cech as Chelsea’s number 1 and how –
most critically – he had the backing of Mourinho. I encouraged Cech to use the
last days of the transfer window to find himself a suitable team as he has the
quality to be the undisputed number 1 at virtually any top team in the world –
but Chelsea. Recently, Cech pointed out how unhappy he is with his substitute
role at Chelsea and wants to move on. He could have saved himself four months
of being benched and a whole lot of frustration. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">In the same post, I
suggested that Real Madrid was unlikely to win any trophies as long as they
were to keep their hands above the head of their once star goalkeeper Iker
Casillas. While, obviously, no trophies have been handed out yet since, Real is
topping the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Liga </i>table at the moment
as well as its Champions League group. I leave it up
to the reader to judge what Casillas’s contribution to Real Madrid’s current success is, but at least I acknowledge to be surprised Casillas is still being given
preference over Navas. And while even the ultraconservative Spanish national
coach Vicente del Bosque found it in his heart to bench San Iker against
Luxembourg, meanwhile, the 33-year old seems to have regained his place in <i>La Roja</i> from de Gea. Casillas himself recently stated he is convinced he has seven more
seasons in him, so who am I to challenge that. Time will tell who’s right – and
I doubt we will have to wait seven more years to find out.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">In ‘The Falcon Has Landed…But Is He Here to Stay?’ I pointed out that UEFA's Financial Fair Play rules,
next to being constraining, also seemed to have a curious enabling effect. For
the first time in history, teams are given a credible excuse not to pay full transfer
fees but rather borrow star players for a year – in which these players essentially can be
tried and tested. When the world seemed convinced that what was going on was a
mere payment in instalments spread over time, I pointed out that the option
element would likely make that underperformers were never to be finally
transferred. </span><br />
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><br /></span>
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Interestingly, yesterday – and 2.5 months after writing the post –
I read a first voice along those lines – and no less than Louis van
Gaal's. Following Falcao’s persistent injury problems, and following a week in
which Man. U. allegedly paid nearly €1 million in wages to its <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">injured</i> players alone, van Gaal admitted that it was all but sure
they will exercise the purchase option on Falcao: <i>“Last year, he was out for a
long time with a knee injury. Then it is not necessary to take unnecessary
risks”</i>, the Dutchman reportedly said. Whether or not Man. U. will
eventually exercise the purchase option on the Colombian or not, the fact that they are considering
not to proves exactly the point I was making in the third post. Should Falcao
not be a Mancunian anymore next year it won’t take long for van Gaal to receive a "biscuit of own dough" (<i>koekje van eigen deeg</i>) as
Chicharito is not all that unlikely to be returning to Manchester himself.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">In ‘Munir vs. Neymar:
0-2’, I damped the premature optimism regarding Barça’s new sensational youngster Munir and pointed out that Neymar is – and always will be
– a much higher quality player. Let’s have a quick glance at the descriptive
statistics of both players. In the league and the Champions League combined, since
the publication of the blog post to date, Neymar scored 11 goals and gave 3
assists in 13 appearances. Munir totalled 0 goals and 0 assists in 8
appearances. On average, during this period, Neymar has scored 1 goal per 90
minutes he was on the field; Munir <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">no </i>goal
per 334 minutes he was on the field.</span><br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZ5hLbLjnbgG6-CvjwYtfSMufOYakFD6HolvqbhmyCJGlLBogorr3AFYYzSH6YOy8wSx3vAyAW20GTs1WxE6tteaoOyuP6MDZHT-NyFf9CzyYhprffiVUXuRWTYm-22us6I8xD2BXxq6_8/s1600/neymar.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="192" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZ5hLbLjnbgG6-CvjwYtfSMufOYakFD6HolvqbhmyCJGlLBogorr3AFYYzSH6YOy8wSx3vAyAW20GTs1WxE6tteaoOyuP6MDZHT-NyFf9CzyYhprffiVUXuRWTYm-22us6I8xD2BXxq6_8/s1600/neymar.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: theguardian.com</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The sixth post, I
dedicated to troubled Belgian (former) supertalent El Ghanassy having
become a free agent. I’m surprised to see that, two months down the road, he is
still without a team. Interestingly, the club that showed most concrete
interest in signing him so far was reported – about a week after the post – to have
been my own KV Mechelen. They were, however, snubbed by El Ghanassy’s
agent. Although I doubt both that my club needs another winger and that they
are fit to provide the different types of professional support El Ghanassy
would need to succeed, in case they are still interested, it would be well
worth informing about him again. Meanwhile, his expectations will likely have been
adjusted downwards now that he’s been without an employer – and thus income –
for over two months already. Indeed, relegation-threatened Cercle Brugge now seem to be his best available tangible alternative – probably not what he or
his manager had in mind at the time of telling KV Mechelen off.</span><br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpgvkQRPdD66yEBC0ilcORarti8XLth8eXDsCR3KazohEQU_kj7nFTcGYbiw6iXOWw2n06_u56nvO734to02N74WkjRkfAdRCUMVLc1-rbx1wiU8iwUbt7w4Ss9quWrkZxRnmwn9dzLPmh/s1600/Ghanassy.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpgvkQRPdD66yEBC0ilcORarti8XLth8eXDsCR3KazohEQU_kj7nFTcGYbiw6iXOWw2n06_u56nvO734to02N74WkjRkfAdRCUMVLc1-rbx1wiU8iwUbt7w4Ss9quWrkZxRnmwn9dzLPmh/s1600/Ghanassy.jpg" width="239" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: zimbio.com</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
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<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><br /></span>
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Of the remaining
published posts, only some conveyed ready predictions. Ronaldinho is still in
Mexico rather than the MLS, but give the man some time. As for Brendan Rodgers, he, predictably, got burnt playing with fire, his side losing at home against
Chelsea, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">in spite of their relative
physical fitness</i>. Still most interesting to see will be whether at least Rodgers can salvage a Champions League qualification for his Reds in the remaining two matches, having forfeited 3 potential points against Real Madrid, in the advent of the Chelsea game.</span><br />
<br />
To conclude and
look ahead, do note that at the bottom of every post there is a possibility to comment: for any substantive matters, feel free to do so, as we all
stand to learn!</div>
tompvhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07038797867793544042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2516315811350613646.post-91135761622955374522014-11-06T19:52:00.000+01:002014-11-11T18:27:45.989+01:00Nothing More Important Than the Game After Next?<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">One of the most
promising fixtures of this week's Champions League was at the Santiago
Bernabéu, where Real Madrid would be hosting Liverpool. What may have slightly
tempered expectations of a great game to come was that Liverpool had lost 0-3
at Anfield. At the same time, the Reds could thus be deemed to be out for
revenge. Not so Liverpool’s manager Brendan Rodgers though: he baffled friend
and foe by fielding a “B-team” in the most high-profile club competition, against
the reigning champion. The rationale: Liverpool would be facing Chelsea in the league on Saturday, a game with a higher expected value for Rodgers. The
Champions League qualification, Liverpool would compete for in its final two
group games, against lesser opponents. Was this “strategic weakening” of his squad a clever move by Rodgers? I am quite convinced of the contrary and mainly
for two reasons.</span><br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgV2wV5juDDTMGHiVdSIl_l_ggsAwaMtk8vripX2g24IotFEdxOz-0UW5TshLTRgE51XSLLhilB2zytA-_ptLLYfG01IKYu7Pfgno-Nojk-K5r98M6l83zTvvXtG1hEMHANfXUPp5U-7cgq/s1600/Brendan-Rodgers-manager-of-Livepool.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgV2wV5juDDTMGHiVdSIl_l_ggsAwaMtk8vripX2g24IotFEdxOz-0UW5TshLTRgE51XSLLhilB2zytA-_ptLLYfG01IKYu7Pfgno-Nojk-K5r98M6l83zTvvXtG1hEMHANfXUPp5U-7cgq/s1600/Brendan-Rodgers-manager-of-Livepool.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: independent.co.uk</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">First, the move is
demonstrative of no less than two reasoning errors. The first error is to conceive
of football as purely – or at least almost exclusively – a physical game, with
a team’s performance being determined by the physical fitness of its players. A
second and related error is “either/or” thinking, which has little or no solid
ground in this case.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Let it be
well-understood that physical fitness naturally determines for a great part how
a team will perform. Thus, resting one or two players – even star players – in
case they are showing clear signs of fatigue, e.g. as was Steven
Gerrard ahead of Tuesday’s game – is quite granted. Deliberately weakening
one’s team, as by replacing half the squad, is quite a different thing. </span>As a result of the latter, those players who were put to rest – meaning they were not to play in the
Bernabéu against Real Madrid, which they may or may not have enjoyed – may
indeed be fresher, physically, when comes Saturday’s Chelsea game.<br />
<br />
What is more,
these players now also know that their coach is so convinced of their skill he
is willing to accept defeat against a team such as Real Madrid already beforehand.
A team’s manager should also be its leader and thus always the last man standing.
Nothing more demoralising for players and fans than a leader who no longer
believes in Sepp Herberger’s truism that the ball is round, i.e. that anything
can happen on a football field. Furthermore, Liverpool
is not just any club. It is the club whose fans are famous for it never having
to walk alone. And the club that won the very Champions League in 2005
following the Miracle of Istanbul, recovering from trailing 3-0 at half-time
against AC Milan. No miracle in the Bernabéu though. For miracles can only happen if you believe in them.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">I like to link this
experience to three separate episodes I witnessed in the past, in Belgium. In
2010, SV Roeselare was playing the semi-final of the Belgian Cup, against Cercle
Brugge – not the strongest of opponents. Roeselare is a very small team, also for
Belgian standards, and they were struggling not to relegate that season. For coach van Wijk it was very clear that remaining in the first league
was much more important than playing the cup final – which, otherwise, for fans and players of a team as Roeselare tends to be a once – or never –
in-a-life-time experience. And that he would not hesitate to keep his players fresh for the former challenge. Apparently, for van Wijk, it was “either/or”.
Roeselare lost the cup’s semi-final first leg with 0-3. And it got relegated to
the second division, where they remain up till today. Go to Roeselare and I
challenge you to find a fan convinced s/he will ever make it to the King Boudewijn
stadium to see his/her club compete in the cup final.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Another eye-opener for
me was KV Mechelen’s home game against Club Brugge in the 2013-2014 season.
Despite disappointing league positions in recent years, KV Mechelen is a team
with a strong home reputation, in part thanks to the proximity of its fanatic
supporters. In August ‘13, all signs were pointing to it again being “one of
those nights”: with twenty minutes remaining, KVM had recovered from being
one goal down and, five minutes after, when a Brugge defender was sent off, was left with ample time to bring the game home. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">KV Mechelen's coach at the time, van
Veldhoven, had initially approached the game very conservatively, playing with a
sole striker. Even with Brugge being one man down and with the momentum of
the late equaliser, he did not make any attacking change. As a result, Mechelen’s ample defenders were left so idle and with such a drive forward that they constantly ran out of position, leaving the team most vulnerable on the counterattack. Even playing at home
against ten men, the coach did not believe we could beat Brugge that day. This
became a self-fulfilling prophecy: we lost after Brugge got a penalty on the
counterattack. Even more
contagious than a manager’s relentless belief in his/her squad's ability is his/her lack thereof – and more so when it shines through in the tactics.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">A more joyful example
of contagion: shortly after my team, KV Mechelen, won the European Cup Winners
Cup in 1988, by beating Ajax in Straatsburg, they were to receive archrival
Anderlecht in the domestic league. After three days of non-stop
celebrations, it is generally believed that the state of KV Mechelen’s squad at
the time of kick off against Anderlecht is best described as
“half-drunk”. KV Mechelen went on to beat Anderlecht 3-0 and the festivities
could recommence.</span><br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTiL5Z3A6Vv48R23QSJGlIu67PDarQYuDaqr7SmFIGUtqmlosR0vp3leSjVv-ICjmj7ln7kkOYhpfJM6S4FhKi4HKOPIYUMzGwv0PcwefkfHzY-iBY9UMaaHZ5AoKjrUSG4E-WrYsynfvX/s1600/spelers-met-ECII-300x242.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTiL5Z3A6Vv48R23QSJGlIu67PDarQYuDaqr7SmFIGUtqmlosR0vp3leSjVv-ICjmj7ln7kkOYhpfJM6S4FhKi4HKOPIYUMzGwv0PcwefkfHzY-iBY9UMaaHZ5AoKjrUSG4E-WrYsynfvX/s1600/spelers-met-ECII-300x242.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">From left to right: Erwin Koeman, Michel Preud'homme,<br />
captain Lei Clijsters, Marc Emmers<br />
Source: stamnummer25.be</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Before getting carried
away, on to the second reason why Rodgers’ move was in error. A football game is
always played against an opponent. Thus, strength, weakness and fitness make
most sense when considered relative to the opposition. The game Rodgers was
saving his men for was against Chelsea. Chelsea would be playing in the
Champions League one day <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">later </i>than
Liverpool, away in Slovenia. Following their respective CL matches, Chelsea would have only two days before the league game; Liverpool 3,
or 50% more than Chelsea. But then, if Rodgers believes his players could never get a result against Real Madrid, they probably need to be much more rested than
Chelsea’s to stand any chance against them.</span><br />
<br />
Let’s see what the
physically fresh Liverpool players will do against Chelsea this weekend. And
how and if Rodgers will be able to convince his team that the coming games in
the Champions League <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">are</i> important – and that they
surely have what it takes to win them.</div>
tompvhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07038797867793544042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2516315811350613646.post-25396576722919683762014-10-19T16:07:00.001+02:002016-04-11T16:21:49.011+02:00So the Ball Doesn’t Go In by Chance. But Do We also Know Why?<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Football leaders who
come from a business background generally are met with great scepticism by the wider public and everyday evidence shows this is often deservedly so. The
take of Ferran Soriano, CEO of Manchester City FC and former Vice President of
FC Barcelona, is an interesting one, though: he warns against readily
translating business ideas into a football context and instead extracts from
his business background rather the conviction that a thorough understanding of the
logic behind a phenomenon – let it be business or football – will allow for
improving upon its management. Moreover, to better understand the logic of football, he
embraces authoritative research findings in this arena.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">As a notable example,
in the first chapter of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Goal:
The Ball Doesn’t Go In by Chance</i>, the now CEO of the Citizens points to
findings by researchers Szymanski and Kuypers of a club’s success being strongly positively correlated with how much the club spends on players' wages, but not transfer budgets – a key take-away
featured also in <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Soccernomics</i>, the
bestseller co-authored by Szymanski. Two things are striking about Soriano’s
account. First, that he seems to get the interpretation of the findings more
right than the researchers in question. Secondly, that it appears to be the
“common sense” Soriano refers to that helped him get the interpretation more
right, but that a true logic for doing so remains hidden. In this post, I will
explicate the logic behind a plausible interpretation of these findings. This
will also provide a handy checklist for when interpreting research findings more generally.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">In <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Soccernomics</i>, the authors mention that, based
on analysis of historical data from the English Premier League, they are able
to conclude that, “the correlation [of a team’s league position] with players’
pay [over a long period is] about 90 percent. In short, the more you pay your players in wages, the
higher you will finish”. Even more than the content of this claim, what is
interesting here, from a scientific perspective, is the leap from one
step to the next: the strong positive correlation is suggested to imply a causal
relationship of the type “A leads to B” (with "A" being players’ pay and "B" league
position). The A->B causal interpretation, however, is only one of at least six possible explanations for the strong positive correlation. I will argue that it is most probably not the applicable one here and that Soriano intuitively rather seems to have gotten the most plausible one. </span><br />
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><br /></span>
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><u><b>Possible
explanations for the strong positive correlation include the following:</b></u><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">1.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">There is
correlation, but no causation. In fact, correlation does not automatically imply
causation: some things just happen at the same time, but without one causing the
other. For instance, following the Dutch Armada’s recent surprisingly disappointing
performances in the Euro 2016 “qualifiers” – let’s more accurately call them
“friendlies”, as everyone is to qualify anyway – journalists started
speculating, rather jokingly, that the Dutch may be encountering the “curse of the
third”. Apparently, since 1980, no country other than Germany that ended third
in the preceding World Cup has been able to qualify for the subsequent Euro
Championships. People of common sense readily understand that this is just a “funny
coincidence”, e.g. similar to England on average being more successful when
playing in red than white jerseys. Moreover, the number of data points would be too small to make any rigorous claim to the contrary. Szymanski et al.'s analysis appears to be based on ample data so that this explanation of mere coincidence can comfortably be ruled out.</span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">2.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The strong positive
correlation is not due to coincidence and thus indeed points to a causal
relationship. In this case, the causal relationship can still be one of at least four types:</span><br />
<ul>
<li><span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">A leads to B. In our example, higher wages directly lead to a better league position, i.e. the explanation proposed by Szymanski et al.</span></li>
</ul>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5q7_F2mfdWHN99oKaS2Ax-JOXi4y3d1WnnXUEXorxmWlA4kTF7qf4ETulhwrlmki5_Xg-rfRnojimjgG5mlOj-4CPUhWE1G8BKi7WwNjHdiTbV6dCUpiRjgVblehvK20iugsahSPpA1dj/s1600/graph+1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="60" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5q7_F2mfdWHN99oKaS2Ax-JOXi4y3d1WnnXUEXorxmWlA4kTF7qf4ETulhwrlmki5_Xg-rfRnojimjgG5mlOj-4CPUhWE1G8BKi7WwNjHdiTbV6dCUpiRjgVblehvK20iugsahSPpA1dj/s1600/graph+1.png" width="200" /></a></div>
<ul>
<li>B leads to A. In our example, a better league position leads to higher wages. Winning a league naturally implies winning prize money, of which the players are to get a significant share. Not all that implausible as an alternative explanation then, perhaps. But note that the proportion of prize money in a typical footballer’s wage tends to be rather small.</li>
</ul>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiik-RfI2jnvJvdQjfYgD4zgEnR7NkQJ6M6xjNafk19VvFQyegKbom5l3kSQCvu9ylpkIrKevSRqKOtk8OfNNblVaERcxKUMSspD2pkDk5hrJ-hyIMCOUwlskv8Td6z3-VGCXi08p-pDh5m/s1600/graph+2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="63" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiik-RfI2jnvJvdQjfYgD4zgEnR7NkQJ6M6xjNafk19VvFQyegKbom5l3kSQCvu9ylpkIrKevSRqKOtk8OfNNblVaERcxKUMSspD2pkDk5hrJ-hyIMCOUwlskv8Td6z3-VGCXi08p-pDh5m/s1600/graph+2.png" width="200" /></a></div>
<ul>
<li>A and B are positively correlated, not because one causes the other, but because they have a common cause (“C”). A typical example would be the one of the use of sunglasses and temperature being strongly positively correlated. Neither one causes the other. Rather, they both have a common cause, viz. intensity of sunlight. In our case, A and B would seem more closely connected than merely through a possible common cause, though.</li>
</ul>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi15ob1S5XXmYvwArMr9ClBDmdXMnbzMdJOjddrBHLBWPMeN25meSOPiXhWoiMEZ54PuRyDx5jqg3HPDKiIXOtB2WOpHoVFQiHWIk1zxleLJPczVlXigkVSAumapsISoSigXixgU53E5oer/s1600/graph+3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="128" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi15ob1S5XXmYvwArMr9ClBDmdXMnbzMdJOjddrBHLBWPMeN25meSOPiXhWoiMEZ54PuRyDx5jqg3HPDKiIXOtB2WOpHoVFQiHWIk1zxleLJPczVlXigkVSAumapsISoSigXixgU53E5oer/s1600/graph+3.png" width="200" /></a></div>
<ul>
<li>What is also possible is that A <i>does</i> lead to B, but only indirectly, i.e. through another variable, viz. a mediator ("D"). In our case, it seems most plausible that paying higher wages (A) leads to a better league position (B), but primarily if not only to the extent that these wages are used to employ better players (D).</li>
</ul>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwD1gKilqVQbrVIC2FhAACQo8WMNCikUNHqE9LhtVXr4nxQu_y9f66G9-d-f0ZH-nsvLd8J1jLUCfviE1KERRTRfnJoE3mho_DFasnfATNgrYukO0jEMKgqQq0U9UiKK0mcL3v6RDxFqar/s1600/graph+4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="122" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwD1gKilqVQbrVIC2FhAACQo8WMNCikUNHqE9LhtVXr4nxQu_y9f66G9-d-f0ZH-nsvLd8J1jLUCfviE1KERRTRfnJoE3mho_DFasnfATNgrYukO0jEMKgqQq0U9UiKK0mcL3v6RDxFqar/s1600/graph+4.png" width="200" /></a></div>
<br />
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><u><b>So, which one will it be?</b></u></span><br />
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><u><br /></u></span>Not only do Szymanski et al. seem to incorrectly suggest that correlation automatically implies causation, but also that if there is causation, it must then be of an “A leads to B” nature. To appreciate how unlikely this explanation for the on-hand correlation would be, consider what it actually implies: that if you are to pay more (to whomever), you will obtain a better league position. So if you merely start paying your team’s current players as if they were Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo, your team would soon get the results of Barça or Real Madrid. Szymanski et al. seem at least to acknowledge this inescapable implication of their attribution of their findings and – more puzzlingly – seem to go with it: “The question, then, is...[with] this knowledge of the relative importance of wages and unimportance of transfers, how can you win more matches? ...In general, it may be better to raise the pay of your leading players”. Agreed, paying peanuts is likely to hire you monkeys. But is rewarding your monkeys as if they were stars going to turn them into a dream team, really?<br />
<br />
What about Soriano? He, as readily, neglects coincidence, thus equating correlation and causation – though he seems to be ruling out coincidence already in the very title of his book. His interpretation of the findings: “So, if you want…a team with a chance of regularly winning championships, then you need to work consistently to have a big club that generates enough revenues to be able to sign the best football talent available.” So the finding that transfer expenditure does not seem to be strongly positively correlated with sportive success does not fool Soriano into believing that it is your current squad that you should simply start paying more. Interestingly, while he gives the impression he is merely reiterating Szymanski et al.’s conclusion, in fact Soriano is rather endorsing the alternative explanation of a favourable position in the league pre-requiring that high wages are used for attracting top talent.<br />
<br />
Where Soriano does err, is in stating that per the analysis and findings by Szymanski et al., common sense has been “corroborated by mathematics”. A subtle, yet meaningful, distinction is to be made here. Szymanski and Kuypers were not using mathematics, but rather statistics and, more specifically, regression analysis. Why is this distinction important? Because mathematics is the only way by which general truths can actually be proven. For instance, that <!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<![endif]--><!--StartFragment--><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="ES-TRAD">(a + b)<sup>2</sup></span><span lang="ES-TRAD"> =<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span><span lang="ES-TRAD">a<sup>2</sup></span><span lang="ES-TRAD"> + </span><span lang="ES-TRAD">b<sup>2</sup></span><span lang="ES-TRAD"> + 2a.b</span></span> can easily by proven by simple application of algebraic rules. Unless someone is able to spot an error in the mathematical proof, a general rule has thus been proven. Additionally, in the natural sciences, there are several general laws that are derived from observation. An apple falling from a tree, for instance, points to the existence of gravity, which will always apply on the earth’s surface.<br />
<br />
It is very different in the social sciences, however, where human will and behavioural traits make that not all priors will necessarily lead to the same outcomes. Regression analysis is here typically used to discern meaningful patterns. Very importantly, though, such analysis cannot <i>prove</i> something to hold generally; it can only <i>show</i> for something to occur, with a certain level of probability (cf. confidence intervals) under certain conditions and controlling for certain factors. (One can prove for something not to hold generally, by means of an empirical counterexample, e.g. if a team of 8 beats a team of 11, it has been proved that this is not impossible. However, the general rule can never be proven (empirically): the fact that so far every time a team of 11 came to beat a team of 7 does not show – let alone prove – that that is what will always happen under such conditions.)<br />
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Consequently, in the
case of regression analysis, and unlike with mathematics, it is not uncommon for
different researchers to be able to show quite contradictory findings, based on
similar data, e.g. by accurately vs. not controlling for mediation or a common cause.</div>
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<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">In short, when there
is strong positive correlation, several things can be going on, including nothing at all (i.e.
coincidence); A leading to B; B leading to A; C leading to both A and B; mediation; or strong correlation may disappear when accounting for adequate controls. </span>The "noisy neighbours'" CEO appears intuitively right in his interpretation of the potentially
important football findings proposed by Szymanski et al. I would expect him to be first to acknowledge that it is helpful to have made visible the hidden
logic of why that is so.</div>
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tompvhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07038797867793544042noreply@blogger.com