Europe's Hottest Prospects Going Into the New Year

With the final whistle of 2015's last match having been blown and the opening of the winter mercato being imminent, an excellent moment has come to re-assess the goal-scoring performances of Europe’s top scorers. In previous posts, I developed a multi-measure analysis, considering top scorers’ performance according to four meaningful dimensions, in addition to the simple number of goals scored: efficacy, efficiency, relative efficacy and importance of goals scored. No less than four different top scorers top one of these five rankings, underlining the value of the multi-measure approach. 

In the below analysis, as before, I will be taking into account appearances and goals scored in the five main domestic leagues in Europe as well as in the UEFA Champions and Europa leagues. To be considered a top scorer at this stage of the season, I require a player to have scored ten goals or more, a condition satisfied by 25 players, coming from 20 teams –FC Barcelona, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, PSG and… Leicester City have two each.

The top 10 of simple top scorers as of 01/01/2016 is being headed by Cristiano Ronaldo:

·      “Simple” goals, or the number of goals scored:

Tabel 1. Simple ranking: Europe's top scorers by number of goals scored

Observation 1: Only one of this happy bunch (of 25) has a contract due to expire mid 2016 and can thus be snatched up without a transfer fee: Zlatan Ibrahimovic.

·      “Efficacy”, or the number of penalty-adjusted goals scored:

Tabel 2. Efficacy ranking: Converted penalties count for half a (field) goal

Observation 2: After making the proposed adjustment for penalties (i.e. valued at 0.5x), Lewandowski retains his top spot in the efficacy ranking, let it be shared with Cristiano – with Lewa having needed less time on the field to score his 22.

Observation 3: Bayern are the only team with two players in the penalty-adjusted top ten. Lewandowski-Müller thus remains the most efficacious duo in Europe.

·      “Efficiency”, or the average number of penalty-adjusted goals scored per 90 minutes on the pitch:

Tabel 3. Efficiency ranking: Avg. number of penalty-adjusted goals scored during 90 minutes

Observation 4: While Lewandowski is still Europe’s most efficacious top scorer, he no longer is the most efficient one. Furthermore, Lewa-Müller is no longer the most efficient duo. Benzema-Cristiano is the only couple in European football that, combined, scored more than two(!) (penalty-adjusted) goals on average per 90 minutes on the field.

Observation 5: In addition to the most efficient Benzema and Lewandowski, Aubameyang and Higuaín are the only other top scorers to have scored more than one (penalty-adjusted) goal on average per 90 mins on the pitch – indeed quite a feat, halfway down the season. Both Luis Suárez and Cristiano being not far off either.

·      “Relative efficacy”, or the percentage of penalty-adjusted goals scored relative to the team:

Tabel 4. Relative efficacy ranking: Percentage of team's penalty-adjusted goals scored by top scorer

Observation 6: Agirretxe and Ighalo continue to spearhead their respective team’s attack: both top scorers’ respective goals accounted for no less than 67% and 64% of Real Sociedad’s and Watford’s (penalty-adjusted) total, respectively. Indeed, it would be hard to overestimate the reliance of both teams on their top scorer’s goals.

Observation 7: Lukaku’s emergence, with a 44%-share of Everton’s (penalty-adjusted) goal tally, is well-worth pointing out.
 

Observation 8: Betis’ Castro and Rayo Vallecano’s Guerra both (temporarily) dropped out of the rel. efficacy ranking. Although each accounted for well over 50% of his respective team’s goal total, neither managed to put in double-digit goals and is thus, at this point, considered a top scorer.

·      “Importance”, or the average of the virtual and eventual incremental points won by the player’s team because of a player's goals:

Tabel 5. Importance ranking: Avg. of virtual and eventual incremental points won by team because of top scorer's goals

Observation 9: The prophecy at the end of the previous post has become reality: Jamie Vardy has become the most important top scorer on European fields. What is more, no tandem in Europe has gained more points for their team than the duo Vardy-Mahrez did for Leicester. All the more remarkable considering that Leicester does not play in the Europa - let alone Champions - League and thus both stars-on-the-rise had relatively fewer games to win points for their team. And that they play their games in the Premiership, Europe’s most competitive domestic league. And that Leicester is a club of relatively modest means – as evidenced by both top scorers original acquisition prices (£1m for Vardy; £350k for Mahrez)...

Source: theguardian.com

Observation 10: Did you notice the only player to feature in the top ranking according to all five dimensions? Hint 1: It’s one of the many considered not good enough by Louis van Gaal for his struggling Man. United squad. Hint 2: Little pea J

That’s right, it’s Chicharito. Quite an achievement considering the Mexican sniper arrived in a new – and quite a different – country and league only in September!

Source: telesurtv.net

Batman & Robin, Europe's Most Efficient Duo. But One.

The mid-November international break marks a point of reflection for many a club manager. Some so far performed better than expected, whereas for others it is quite the opposite. Irrespectively, however, most have set their sights on players, especially forwards, they feel could make all the difference in their team. Wenger, allegedly, is thinking of landing Bayer Leverkusen’s Bellarabi. Mourinho is rumoured to have a keen eye on Bellarabi’s teammate Chicharito as well as on Higuaín and Griezmann. Meanwhile, Benítez is believed to be eager to add Lewandowski to his merengue squad. Some of these names seem more obvious than others. In this post, I will shed light on Europe’s five top leagues’ top scorers’ performance following the multi-measure method developed earlier.

As explained in the previous post, I consider goals scored both in the domestic league and in the UEFA Champions and Europa Leagues. To qualify as a top scorer at this stage of the competition, a player must have scored 7 or more goals. Now let’s have a look at those rankings!

·      “Simple” goals, or the number of goals scored:

Tabel 1. Simple ranking: Europe's top scorers by number of goals scored

Observation 1: Lewandowski, Aubameyang and Müller - all playing in the Bundesliga(!) - aready made up the top three at the end of September, at the time of the previous post. All three of them managed to hold on to their exceptional form.

·      “Efficacy”, or the number of penalty-adjusted goals scored:

Tabel 2. Efficacy ranking: Converted penalties count for half a (field) goal

Observation 2: Counting any converted penalties for half a field goal, Lewandowski distances himself from Aubameyang. The difference between both, on the one hand, and the rest, headed by Müller, on the other, becomes more pronounced.

·      “Efficiency”, or the average number of penalty-adjusted goals scored per 90 minutes on the pitch:

Tabel 3. Efficiency ranking: Avg. number of penalty-adjusted goals scored during 90 minutes

Observation 3: The two most efficacious top scorers also turn out to be the most efficient ones. Lewandowski and Aubameyang, on average, score well over one (penalty-adjusted) goal per game.

Observation 4: Of the four top scorers who managed to put in more than one (penalty-adjusted) goal per game, two play for Borussia Dortmund! Fielding both Aubameyang and Reus for 90 minutes so far implied the team would score at least two goals, on average - quite a luxury. Still, Bayern Munich's combination of Lewandowski and Müller yielded even more (penalty-adjusted) goals on average per 90 minutes.

Source: futturk.com

Observation 5: We see two relatively unknown top scorers pop up, both from lesser La Liga teams. Real Sociedad's Agirretxe and Rayo Vallecano's Guerra have, respectively, been good for slightly more and slightly less than one field goal per 90 minutes played.

·      “Relative efficacy”, or the percentage of penalty-adjusted goals scored relative to the team:

Tabel 4. Relative efficacy ranking: Percentage of team's penalty-adjusted goals scored by top scorer

Observation 6: And here they are again!: Agirretxe and Guerra turn out both not only to have scored around one goal per game on average, but also to have accounted for 2/3^rds of all the goals scored by their respective teams.

Observation 7: They are joined at the top of this ranking by Odion Ighalo, already Europe's most relatively efficacious scorer at the end of September. The Nigerian striker continues to make the difference for his team.

Observation 8: As opposed to the top four, who, in part, are heading this ranking because of a failure of their teammates to score goals (e.g. all four teams rank in the right-hand side column in their respective national leagues), Jamie Vardy is managing a huge chunk of his team's goals with the whole team cruising through the league.

·      “Importance”, or the average of the virtual and eventual incremental points won by the player’s team because of a player's goals:

Tabel 5. Importance ranking: Avg. of virtual and eventual incremental points won by team because of top scorer's goals

Observation 9: So far in my analysis, he remained largely unnoticed, but Luis Suárez is the top scorer whose goals resulted in most points for his team. Also well worth pointing out is that his teammate Neymar - who, before any adjustment, scored more goals than the Uruguayan - collected less than half of the points for Barça with his goals so far (5.25).

Observation 10: Eye on Vardy. Without his team playing in Europe, as the only player to make it to this ranking's top five, he has managed to earn his team 11 points with his goals already - all within the Premier League, the most competitive national league. Indeed, the Englishman's goal spell is no stranger to Leicester City's extraordinary league position.

Which of Europe's Best Scorers Are On Fire, Really?: A Multi-Measure Analysis

With the new football season now well underway, some of Europe’s top strikers have already found their best form while others struggle to regain it. Considering performances in Europe’s five major domestic leagues (Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1) as well as its main international team competitions (UEFA Champions and Europa Leagues) the “happy few” scorers with already six or more goals to their tally, as of 29/09/15 (morning), are as follows:

Tabel 1. Simple ranking: Europe's top scorers by number of goals scored 

In my May’s post, “Which Premier League Top Scorer Would You Like in Your Team?,” I proposed an evaluation method for top scorers based on multiple measures that would allow for deeper insight into what lies beyond a simple ranking. In this post, I will evaluate Europe’s current top scorers by means of this method. A multi-measure analysis will bear out several critical insights and nuances about Europe’s on-fire scorers.

·      “Efficacy”, or the number of penalty-adjusted goals scored:

For reasons explained in the May post, I adjust the ranking so that converted penalties account for half a field goal. Those with an efficacy rating higher than five are as follows:

Tabel 2. Efficacy ranking: Converted penalties count for half a (field) goal

Observation 1: Making the recommended adjustment for penalties converted, the difference between Lewandowski’s ten goals and first contenders Aubameyang, Müller and Cristiano Ronaldo (all having converted three penalties) becomes clearer. Indeed, Lewandowski so far managed to score as many field goals as both Müller and Ronaldo together.

Observation 2: The penalty adjustment also allows for a better appreciation of the difference between Real Madrid teammates Cristiano Ronaldo’s eight and Benzema’s six goals: If Benítez appointed Benzema rather than Ronaldo as penalty taker, Benzema would have overtaken Ronaldo as the club’s top scorer as Ronaldo would then have scored max. five and Benzema min. six times.

·      “Efficiency”, or the average number of penalty-adjusted goals scored per 90 minutes on the pitch:

The rationale behind the efficiency measure, I explained in the May post. Efficiency, which reflects a scorer’s average performance during a ninety-minute (i.e full-game) period, is all the more relevant when comparing across leagues: not all leagues have the same number of match days and some teams additionally compete in Europe whereas others don’t.

Five of Europe’s top scorers so far have managed to score on average one or more goals during every ninety minutes on the pitch:

Tabel 3. Efficiency ranking: Avg. number of penalty-adjusted goals scored during 90 minutes

Observation 3: To put Lewandowski’s exceptional form in context, not only is he the only one who managed to almost put two field goals in per ninety minutes, but also has he been well over three times as efficient as Manchester United’s sensational signing Anthony Martial (efficiency: 0.54; including three games at Monaco) so far has been this season, for example.

Source: sueddeutsche.de

Observation 4: Karim Benzema so far has also been extraordinarily efficient, scoring more than twice as much as Martial, when on the field, as well comfortably outperforming his teammate Cristiano Ronaldo (efficiency: 0.93).

·      “Relative efficacy”, or the percentage of penalty-adjusted goals scored relative to the team:

As explained in the May post, relative efficacy accounts for the fact that it may well be more complicated to put goals in if you’re a forward at, say, Watford rather than Bayern Munich or Real Madrid.

Tabel 4. Relative efficacy ranking: Percentage of team's penalty-adjusted goals scored by top scorer

Observation 5: Note that the relatively most efficacious scorer in Europe, Watford’s Odion Ighalo, did not even show up in the simple goal top scorer ranking. In fact, none of these scorers featured in any of the above rankings and it is noteworthy that they play their football at relatively smaller teams, which partly accounts for why they managed to score half or more of their team’s (penalty-adjusted) goals.

Observation 6: It is important to note I only consider actual top scorers for these rankings, e.g. only one Premier League player scored more goals than Bournemouth’s Callum Wilson. Málaga, for instance, have not managed to score a single goal yet, so whoever will score their first will attain a 100% relative efficacy (i.e. will have scored 100% of the team’s goals at that point) – but he wouldn’t be anywhere near a league top scorer and thus should and would not enter in this ranking. A similar argument applies to the above efficiency ranking.

·      “Importance”, or the average of the virtual and eventual incremental points won by the player’s team because of a player's goals:

The notion of the importance of a goal in terms of additional points won for the team is critical and is also further detailed in the May post. Arguably, from a team perspective, it is the single most relevant measure as the team's objective is to maximize points rather than goals. Those top scorers whose goals already earned their team more than five points are:

Tabel 5. Importance ranking: Avg. of virtual and eventual incremental points won by team because of top scorer's goals

Observation 7: Lewandowski and Benzema have not only been putting in lots of goals, but also goals that led their respective teams to win more points, notably as opposed to Cristiano Ronaldo whose eight goals so far amounted to a total one-point importance only, according to the measure’s definition.

Observation 8: Ighalo’s ranking as Europe’s joint second team scorer in terms of most important goals for his club demonstrates that his topping the relative efficacy ranking is not just an oddity, but rather demonstrative of something highly meaningful.

Source: theguardian.com

Concluding observations from the multi-measure analysis:

Observation 9: Robert Lewandowski is clearly on fire: not only is he currently Europe’s most effective as well as efficient scorer, but also is he the scorer whose goals so far delivered most points to his team.

Observation 10: Some scorers who so far have been instrumental to their team’s successes, e.g. Griezmann and Ighalo, in a simple ranking of goals scored, would remain largely unnoticed, whereas the impact of others' goals, e.g. Cristiano Ronaldo's, may be overstated.

Observation 11: It is not any single measure, but the combination of several which results in a much deeper and nuanced insight into the meaning of the game’s top scorers.

Money and Football: Big Spenders Take All?

It’s Transfer Deadline: D-Day for many managers and club Presidents across Europe to scramble together their winning team for the months to come. One of the main insights stemming from a “soccernomics” approach is that transfer-fee spending does not lead to positive results on the pitch, but that wage spending does. This relationship was proposed some years ago by sports economist Stefan Szymanski and sports journalist Simon Kuper in their bestseller Soccernomics and, meanwhile, has influenced some of the most powerful people on the business side of sports, such as Ferran Soriano, CEO of the highest-spending sports club worldwide, Manchester City, as evidenced in his book Goal: The Ball Doesn’t Go In by Chance. In an earlier post, I pointed out that a causal relationship going from wage spending to success is very unlikely to exist. Interestingly, in his new book Money and Football: A Soccernomics Guide, Professor Szymanski formally reiterates his stands on the matter, although he actually gives away that it is wrong... I’ll explain very succinctly.

Prof. Szymanski states that there is a very high correlation between wage spending of football clubs and their league position. He now acknowledges that correlation (i.e. two things occurring at the same time) does not automatically imply causation (i.e. one causing the other). However, he points out that, “now there are some statistical tests that one can implement in order to get a better idea about whether a relationship is causal. Some (but) not all of these studies support the view that causation runs from wage spending to league success” – without any indication of what “some (but) not all” concretely means (e.g. two out of ten?, nine out of ten?; which ones yes and which ones no?) He further mentions – and here I certainly do follow – that, “it’s also important to have a theoretical model in mind" and he goes on by suggesting that, "it’s very hard to develop an argument to explain the data that does not entail causality from wages to performance.” Don’t mind if I at least gave it a try:

Wage and talent, or quality, of a player tend to be very highly correlated – including for reasons mentioned by Prof. Szymanski, i.e. that players are operating in a competitive market, with lots of information being available on players and their performance. As a result, a team made up of highly-paid players often reaps success. But the causal driver is the talent, not the wage. In other words, if a same quality player would earn less (within reasonable bounds), performance would be very likely to be the same. For example, do we really expect Kevin De Bruyne to start playing so much better even now than last season just because his wage just nearly doubled? Ridiculous. The driver of – player and team – performance is the quality of the player(s). The wage a player earns is an indicator of that quality, but it does not drive that quality.

Source: mcfc.co.uk

Prof. Szymanski actually confirms exactly that with his “revised formulation” of the pay–performance relationship in his new book. He mentions that money is the key to success, not because by paying donkeys very high wages you will become successful, but because a big checkbook gives you access to superstars (i.e. very high-quality players). It doesn't take a PhD to realize that, if you put two and two together, what this in fact means is that quality, or talent, not wage, drives success. And that quality or talent tends to be highly correlated with wages, due to supply and demand dynamics of the market for players. Prof. Szymanski actually concludes that his "pay-performance line works because there is a market–...the market prices the relationship...between talent and success"! (emphasis added)

For those who love statistics, my conjecture corresponds to a strong suspicion that Prof. Szymanski's results demonstrate what is known in the jargon as omitted-variable bias. According to Wikipedia, "in statistics, omitted-variable bias occurs when a model is created which incorrectly leaves out one or more important causal factors. The "bias" is created when the model compensates for the missing factor by over- or underestimating the effect of one of the other factors." Leaving out an actual variable for talent, or quality, while including a variable that is highly correlated with quality (such as wage) may thus lead to showing a very strong direct relationship between wage and success - but only because talent as such has erroneously been omitted. A look at the original 2002 Journal of Sports Economics paper by Hall, Szymanski and Zimbalist confirms omission of a talent variable in both the regressions and the causality tests.

The main lesson for sports managers out there? Look out for talent, not just to spend your money! Something the likes of Swansea’s Garry Monk realized quite some time ago – partly out of necessity – and something Louis van Gaal still doesn’t – partly for lack thereof. Fortunately for mad King Louis, he seems blessed with Maecenases who don’t seem to either.

Source: BBC's Match of the Day (30/08/15)